GDP up 2.4% y/y in 2023 - provisional data

Romania’s economy expanded by an annual 2.4% last year, slowing from 4% growth recorded in 2022, the statistical office said on Thursday, quoting provisional data and revising upwards by 30 basis points (bp) its second provisional estimate released in April.   The country's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.9% in the second quarter of 2024, compared to a 1.2% annual increase in the same period of last year, the statistical office, INS said in a separate statement on Thursday, quoting a second set of non-adjusted provisional data. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the country's GDP also expanded by 0.9%, compared to a 2.8% increase in the prior year.   The INS revised upwards by 10 bp its first provisional estimate  for GDP growth in the second quarter of 2024. Compared to the first quarter, Romania's GDP edged up by 0.3% in April-June, following a 0.4% quarterly decline in January-March.   In 2023, final consumption volume grew by 3.7% on the year, accounting for 79% of the nominal GDP value for the period and contributing 3 percentage points (pp) to unadjusted GDP growth. Household consumption alone accounted for 69.2% of the nominal GDP value, while government expenditure represented 9.8%. Gross capital formation increased by 14.5%, making up 27% of the economic output in unadjusted terms.   Trade was the most significant negative economic contributor in the second quarter, taking away 4.8 pp from unadjusted GDP growth in 2023.   The agricultural sector’s output saw a 9.6% annual expansion, representing 3.9% of the nominal GDP value in 2023. The industrial sector contracted by 2.2%, representing 19.1% of the nominal aggregate, while the construction sector's output rose by 12%, accounting for 6.6% of total output.   In Q2 2024, the agriculture sector grew by 16.1% year-on-year but decreased its share of nominal GDP to 1.9%. The industrial sector contracted by 0.5%, contributing 17.1% to GDP, while construction increased by 3.3%, making up 5.4%. Total final consumption was the main economic driver, representing 80.8% of nominal GDP, and gross fixed capital formation accounted for 26.5%. Foreign trade negatively impacted GDP by 6.7 percentage points.   In the first half of 2024, Romania’s GDP grew by an unadjusted 0.7% and a real 1.4% on the year.   In 2022, Romania's economic output rose by an annual 4%, slowing down from a 5.5% increase in 2021, the INS said in a final data release for the year, adjusting downwards its December semifinal data release by 10 bp.   Romania's economy is expected to expand by an estimated 3.3% in 2024, the European Commission said in its Spring 2024 Economic Forecast report issued in May, revising upwards its previous forecast for 2.9% growth.