National Bank revises upwards to 3.8% inflation forecast for year's end

  The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has revised upwards, to 3.8%, from 3.5% previously, the inflation forecast for the end of 2025 and anticipates that it will reach 3.1% at the end of 2026, according to data presented on Monday by the Governor of the BNR, Mugur Isarescu."According to the baseline scenario of the macroeconomic projection, the annual inflation rate will continue to fluctuate in the first part of the current year. The indicator will subsequently decrease and return to the target range in the first quarter of 2026, remaining relatively stable in its upper half throughout next year. Structurally, the CPI trajectory is configured by the continuous reduction of core inflation, but in a gradual manner, while the set of exogenous components of the basket will print the volatile profile in the first part of the range, mainly as a result of base effects. Under these conditions, the annual CPI inflation rate will reach 3.8% in December 2025, with a value of 3.1% anticipated for December 2026. Compared to the trajectory published in the November 2024 Inflation Report, CPI inflation is at higher values up to end of the current year (more visible in the first quarters of the year), respectively lower in 2026", reads the Inflation Report of February 2025.According to the cited source, the revision for December 2025 is +0.3 percentage points, determined mainly by price increases at the beginning of the year (tobacco products, services with administered prices), but also by a more pronounced persistent dynamics of core inflation, partially counterbalanced by slightly more optimistic prospects on the LFO segment.The continuously downward trajectory will be supported by the gradual correction of inflation expectations, by the reduction of pressures from the prices of imported goods, as well as by the expectation of the emergence of a demand deficit in the economy as early as the beginning of this year, in the context of the recent fiscal consolidation measures adopted by the authorities.The presentation also shows that the upward revision of the forecast until the end of this year reflects the intensification of recent pressures on the food segment, as well as the maintenance of still large inflationary pressures coming from labor costs.