Analysis: Productivity in Romania, up from 26pct in 2008 to 44pct in 2024

 Productivity in Romania increased from 26% in 2008 to 44% in 2024, with women making a remarkable contribution, according to an analysis by Ella Kallai, chief economist at Alpha Bank Romania."Productivity in Romania, measured as the gross value added per hour worked, compared with the EU average, increased from 26% in 2008 (EUR 7.7 per hour as against EUR 29.5 per hour) to 44% in 2024 (EUR 20 per hour as against EUR 46 per hour), with women making a remarkable contribution. On the one hand, productivity increased in the leading sectors of the economy that are closer to the frontier of knowledge and technology, and on the other hand, the share of the leading sectors in the economy also increased. The structure of the economy according to the level of technology and knowledge includes the branches of the manufacturing industry classified according to the share of research expenditure in the value added in high-tech branches and low-technology branches, with the services classified according to the share of personnel with a higher education background in knowledge-intensive services and non-knowledge-intensive services and the branches supplying raw materials including agriculture, mining, electricity and water supply," according to the Alpha Bank Romania Macroeconomics monthly bulletin "En detail".According to the analysis, productivity increased in all five branches in 2022 from 2008. The highest jump in productivity was posted by the sectors supplying raw materials (from EUR 3 to EUR 9 per hour) and knowledge-intensive services (EUR 9 to EUR 25 per hour). The branches supplying raw materials remained the least productive both in comparison with the other branches and in relation to the productivity of these branches in the region (EUR 45 per hour in the Czech Republic, EUR 17 per hour in Hungary, EUR 13 per hour in Poland).Knowledge-intensive services became the most productive branches of the economy, ranking below productivity in the Czech Republic (EUR 29 per hour) but exceeding productivity in Poland and Hungary (EUR17 per hour). Non-knowledge-intensive services are in second place in terms of productivity, with EUR 17 per hour, being close to productivity in Hungary (EUR 18 per hour) and Poland (EUR 16 per hour), but surpassed productivity in the Czech Republic (EUR 30 per hour). Productivity in the manufacturing industry, both in high-tech branches (EUR13 per hour) and in low-tech branches (EUR 14 per hour) is the lowest in the region.The analysis also shows that, in the last 15 years, the composition of the economy by the five branches changed: the share of knowledge-intensive services increased from 21% in 2008 to 33% in 2023, mainly on a decrease in the share of branches in the low-tech manufacturing industry from 18% in 2008 to 9% in 2023. It is the most dramatic change in the region. A similar change in composition was witnessed in the Czech Republic, but at a much smaller magnitude, as the share of knowledge-intensive services increased to 31% from 29%, and the share of branches of low-tech manufacturing fell from 14% to 11%. In Hungary, the share of the high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 4% on a decrease in the share of raw material supply branches and non-knowledge-intensive services by 2% each. In Poland, the share of knowledge-intensive services increased by 2% on a decrease in the share of the high-tech manufacturing industry by 3%.According to the analysis, in 2023, 43% of the gainfully employed population (3.3 million) was made up of women. The share is similar in the Czech Republic and Poland (44%) but lower than in Hungary (47%). In Romania, although decreasing from 2008, a still high share of the female gainfully employed population of 14% works in the low-tech manufacturing industry, as against 11% in the Czech Republic and 9% in Hungary and Poland. The share of the female population in the gainfully employed population in this sector is 46%, as against 24% in Poland, 32% in the Czech Republic and 37% in Hungary.The analysis claims that the highest share of women in the gainfully employed population is reported in the most productive sectors - 58% in knowledge-intensive services and 48% in non-knowledge-intensive services. The majority of the female population (68%, 2.2 million) work in these sectors, equally distributed between intensive and non-knowledge-intensive services. Compared with Romania, in the countries of the region, the share of the female employed population is higher in knowledge-intensive services (48% in Hungary and Poland, and 49% in the Czech Republic) and lower in non-knowledge-intensive services (28% in the Czech Republic, 29% in Poland and 30% in Hungary)."If the composition of the female population in Romania will converge to the composition of the countries in the region, expectations are that the share of the female population in the knowledge-intensive sectors will increase and that of the non-knowledge-intensive services will decrease. In the coming years, the likely migration of the female population from non-knowledge-intensive services on the one hand and low-tech manufacturing industry on the other hand to knowledge-intensive services of higher productivity, following the model of the countries in the region, will contribute to increasing productivity for the entire economy," according to the analysis.