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The World Bank has revised downwards its forecasts for the evolution of the Romanian economy in 2025 and 2026

June 12, 2025

  The Romanian economy will grow by 1.3% this year, compared to a 2.1% level forecast in January, according to the latest report on the “Global Economic Prospects”, published on Tuesday by the World Bank.   Also, in 2026, Romania’s GDP growth is expected to be 1.9%, compared to a level of 2.6% forecast in January by the World Bank. Economic growth is expected to improve in 2027, to an advance of 2.5%.   According to the international financial institution, unlike other regions, and despite a difficult external environment, economic growth in Central Europe is forecast to strengthen to 2.4% in 2025. The new fiscal package adopted in Germany could help counteract some of the external brakes, which could benefit the region, which sends about 22% of its exports to Germany, especially Poland and Romania.   Globally, the World Bank has cut its global growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 2.3%, saying high tariffs and heightened uncertainty are creating problems for almost all economies.   In a report published on Tuesday, the World Bank cut its forecasts for nearly 70% of all economies, including the US, China and Europe, as well as six emerging regions, from the levels it had forecast just six months ago, before Donald Trump took office.   While it does not expect a recession, the international financial institution said that this year’s global economic growth rate will be one of the weakest in decades, with the exception of the 2008 recession. By 2027, global GDP growth is expected to average just 2.5%, the weakest growth rate for any decade since 1960.   The World Bank also projects that global inflation is expected to reach 2.9% in 2025, remaining above pre-COVID levels, given tariff increases and tight labor markets. “Risks to the global outlook remain firmly tilted to the downside,” the World Bank said. It calculated that a further 10 percentage point increase in US tariffs, on top of the 10% already in place, and a commensurate response from other countries, could shave another 0.5 percentage point off its 2025 outlook.   The World Bank is the latest international institution to revise its growth forecasts in the wake of Trump’s chaotic trade policies, even as US officials insist that any negative consequences will be offset by increased investment and tax cuts to be approved.  

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