Study: Non-EU platforms selling directly to Romanian consumer may generate tax losses worth 2.12B euros

International e-commerce platforms that sell directly to consumers in Romania may generate tax losses of about 10.86 billion lei per year (2.12 billion euros) in the next two years, according to an analysis published on Wednesday by the Romanian Association of Online Stores (ARMO).According to the research, carried out by economist Iancu Guda at the request of ARMO, for 2025, the negative effect is estimated at at least 5.4 billion lei (1.06 billion euros), "an amount that could double by 2027 if the volume of parcels and the average value of orders continue to grow at the current rate"."The study starts from the hypothesis that, in 2025, approximately 78 million non-EU parcels below the 150 euro threshold will enter Romania, a segment currently exempt from customs duties, at an average value of 50 euro/parcel. In the scenario in which the volumes or value of ordered parcels double, the annual commercial value of direct imports through platforms such as Temu, AliExpress, Shein or Trendyol could reach 39.78 billion lei (7.8 billion euros) equivalent to about 28.8% of the local retail market, compared to 14.4%, the estimated value for the end of 2025," the specialized analysis states.The study shows that the retail sector represents approximately 21% of Romania's GDP, and the approximately 60,000 companies considered employ 200,000 people and contribute 37.8 billion lei annually to the budget, through direct and indirect taxes and duties (supplier purchases, commercial space rentals and salaries paid)."Doubling the market share of non-EU platforms would erode the tax base and put additional pressure on these companies, warns the report. If non-EU platforms double their market share in Romania to 28.8% in the next two years, by 2027, tax losses automatically double. We are talking about at least 2.1 billion euros per year in direct and indirect tax losses for Romania, which is huge. In addition, physical stores in established categories may lose a relevant part of their traffic, with severe effects on investments, employment and contributions to the public budget," claims the author of the research.In this context, the list of recommended measures includes: implementing a fair tax system that would tax international platforms in the country where the income was obtained, the consumption was made and the services were provided; introducing, at the Romanian level, an administrative fee of at least 5 euros/non-EU parcel (equivalent to 10% of the average value of a parcel sent by these platforms), which would generate approximately one million euros/day for the state budget; accelerating the elimination of the customs duty exemption for non-EU parcels under 150 euros.Although the European Commission announced the elimination of the de minimis threshold of 150 euros for customs duty exemption starting in 2028, ARMO representatives have constantly drawn attention to the fact that the Romanian economy cannot afford to wait another three years to implement corrective measures.Economist Iancu Guda's analysis complements the sectoral study published by ARMO in July 2025, conducted by Mia Marketing, according to which 7 out of 10 companies expect sales declines this year due to competition from Asian platforms, 8 out of 10 Romanian retail companies expect their activity to be affected by international platforms in the next 12 months, and 75% of the respondents warned that small Romanian producers risk bankruptcy due to the pressure exerted by these platforms.