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Libocor: Possible economy contraction of 0.6% of GDP this year and 2% in 2026

October 19, 2025

Romania may register an economic contraction of 0.6% of GDP this year, with a possible 2% next year, said BRD chief economist Florian Libocor on Tuesday, at the 20th edition of the Country Risk Conference, organized by Coface Romania. He also spoke about this year's fiscal changes, such as higher VAT share, and considered the statement that this measure had brought additional incomes as “a joke”.   “The first rule that changed is VAT increase, as of August 1, and that increasing incomes may be possible. This is a joke. What we have seen are increased delayed effects, or the effects of former collections , not the effects of higher VAT. Secondly, we are amending costs, We were talking about resilience. Have you noticed what is the apparatus resilience? It is very high. How much do you think the interval will change in 1-3 years? I mean it is all right we subscribed to the idea that this effort has a limit until 2026, after which we enter the growth area. But it is not a realistic limit,” said Florian Libocor. Present at the event, Adrian Codiriasu, the president of CFA Romania, said that a consumption drop and an increase of unemployment and insolvencies had been noticed, consistent with a recession episode.   “Even if we were in recession, it would be a light one this year, below 1% economic drop. This year we are close to zero. Next year we will be close to 1%, but I don't see chances of economic relaunch. Fiscal policy is an important obstacle while deficit is an important obstacle in resuming economic growth. But this is the basic scenario. The risk scenario is that with downgrade and I hope we will not reach it,” said Adrian Codiriasu.   Coface has a much more estimate for Romania. According to a presentation by Mateusz Dadej, regional economist for Coface Central and Eastern Europe, Romania's economy could rise by 0.5% this year and by 1.2% next year. According to presented data, Romania could have one of the slowest increases in the area, being followed only by Austria with 0.4% increase this year and 0.6% next year. The presentation showed that Hungary will have a 0.8% increase this year and 2.3% next year, while Bulgaria will have 2.7% this year and 2.6% in 2026.  

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