CFA: The expected inflation rate for the 12-month horizon decreased to 6.26%

Inflation anticipation for the next 12 months was reduced against the previous exercise, for the first time in this inflationist episode, but the fiscal policy remains the main risk on inflation and financial stability for next year, considers the president of the Association CFA Romania, Adrian Codirlasu.   'In accordance with the evolution of the economy, the trust indicator continued to be reduced. It is worth mentioning that, for the first time in this inflationist episode, the inflation rate anticipation for the next 12 months were reduced against the previous year.   It is also worth noting the expectations of a slow reduction in the budget deficit. In practice, fiscal policy remains the main risk to inflation and financial stability in the coming year' Codirlasu said, according to a statement from the organisation.   The monthly survey conducted by CFA Romania shows that the anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (November 2026)decreased compared to the value recorded in the previous month and reached the level of 6.26% and 75% of participants anticipate a reduction in the inflation rate in the next 12 months compared to its current value.     The national currency will depreciate against the euro in the next 12 months, to an average exchange rate of 5.2045 lei per euro, approximately 83% of financial and banking analysts anticipate, according to an analysis published on Monday by CFA Romania. Regarding the evolution of residential property prices in cities, 54% of analysts anticipate stagnation in the coming year.   The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (November 2026) decreased compared to the value recorded in the previous month, reaching 6.26%, while 75% of participants expect inflation to decline over the next 12 months compared to its current level, according to the CFA Romania analysis. “In line with economic developments, the confidence indicator continued to decline. It is noteworthy that, for the first time during this inflationary episode, expectations for the inflation rate over the next 12 months have fallen compared to the previous survey. Also noteworthy are the expectations for a slow reduction of the budget deficit. Essentially, fiscal policy remains the main risk to inflation and financial stability in the coming year,” stated Adrian Codîrla?u, President of CFA Romania. Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, approximately 83% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu over the next 12 months. The average expected value for the 6-month horizon is 5.1410 lei per euro, while for the 12-month horizon, the average anticipated EUR/RON exchange rate is 5.2045 lei per euro.   With respect to the evolution of residential property prices in cities, 54% of participants expect stagnation over the next 12 months. Additionally, 67% of respondents consider current prices to be overvalued, while 33% believe they are fairly valued.The projected state budget deficit for 2025 recorded an average expected value of 8.3% of GDP. For 2026, the anticipated budget deficit stands at 7%. This value is above the target set by the Ilie Bolojan government, which aims for the 2026 budget deficit to be as close as possible to 6%.   Economic growth expectations for 2025 have decreased compared to the previous survey, now standing at an average of 0.6%. For 2026, the economy is expected to grow by less than 1%. Public debt, calculated as a percentage of GDP, is expected to increase to 62% over the next 12 months.