Barometer: Three out of ten managers anticipate exchange rate of 5.05- 5.10 lei / euro in 2022

Over a quarter (26.8%) of local company managers say they have not recorded in 2021, a significant variation of businesses they run, while three out of ten respondents (29.3%) anticipate an average exchange rate of 5.05- 5.10 lei/ euro in 2022, according to data included in the third edition of the annual Moneycorp Barometer called “2021 Challenges and Economic Expectations for 2022.”   According to the specialized report, two out of ten respondents (19.5%) remarked a business drop this year, between 10% and 25%, and about 10% of managers noticed a business drop up to 10% and 7.3% in a share of 50%.   “Restrictions imposed by authorities, especially in the first part of 2021, work from home effects, the increase of financing costs and effects of the low consumers' mobility generated by the pandemic were also top challenges this year.   In this context, 46.3% of people interviewed used programs of economic relaunch proposed by the authorities, and 43.9% of them remarked a positive impact. Another big challenge in 2021 was the unfavorable evolution of the exchange rate which most companies (39%) transferred to final prices. 31.7% of respondents declared that the depreciation of the exchange rate affected their commercial margin and only 9.7% did not register losses, using specific hedging instruments. (Hedging: financial services by which customers with foreign exchange expose can fix their exchange rate in the future, regardless of the market rate existing at the moment)”, Moneycorp Barometer shows.   As for 2022 provisions, over a third (36.6%) of people interviewed see an economic drop, and 17.1% a stagnation. At the same time,19.5% are more optimistic, estimating an economic increase of up to 2%, 12.2%between 2% and -4% and 14.6% of managers are confident there will be an advance of over 4%.   On the background of these data, with a period hard to anticipate from the economic point of view, most respondents (65.9%) declared they would hire people in 2022. According to the source quoted, in point of public life, 80.5% of managers expect political instability and only 2.4% see a positive evolution in this sector.   At the same time, the management of companies interviewed anticipate a depreciation of the national currency, while most respondents (34.1%) see the exchange rate at 5 lei – 5.05 lei, 29.3% think the European currency will be quoted between 5.05 and 5.10 lei, while 14.1% estimate a quotation over 5.10 lei. Also, 22% of people interviewed anticipate an exchange rate between 4.05 and 5 lei.   As for the evolution of the US currency, most managers interviewed (26.8%) think it will exceed 4.40- 4.50 lei, 22% are convinced the dollar will exceed 4.50 lei. One out of two respondents (19.5%) consider the dollar may be quoted between 4.30 and 4.40 lei in 2022 and only 31% will be below that level.   Beyond the evolution of the exchange rate, most respondents interviewed by Moneycorp (46.3%) estimate a significant increase of financing costs next year. Thus, 36.6% of respondents see a marginal increase and a few over 15% think interest rates and other associated costs will drop or will remain at a level similar to that of 2021.   Moneycorp Barometer was made with the support of Frames consulting firm over November 16-22, 2021, on a group of 1,225 persons in varied fields like: IT&C, FMGC, HoReCa, insurance, equipment, raw materials, tourism, partners and collaborators of Moneycorp Romania. The profile of respondents was presented by middle and top management, with higher education (63% men and 37% women) with an average age of 45 years. Present in Romania since 2016, Moneycorp is the largest payment institution in Europe. The company has recently won the Best Money Service Provider prize, at the annual ceremony World Banking Awards in London.