Slovakia, Hungary and Czech Republic are most exposed among Central and Eastern European (CEE) sovereigns to a sudden cessation of Russian gas supplies to EU countries, Fitch Ratings says. Poland, Lithuania and Romania appear least exposed.A sudden cessation is not Fitch’s base case, but is a risk. Bulgaria and Poland have already been cut off and supplies to other EU members have been reduced. Supply and infrastructure constraints mean it could take the EU more than three years to offset a full loss of Russian gas supply.Fitch has constructed a vulnerability matrix showing EU countries’ reliance on Russian gas imports. We have also considered EU and national policy responses, holding discussions with national authorities, usually energy ministries of all CEE EU members. These responses would probably involve supply- and demand-side management and centralised price-setting. We also look at mitigating factors for the 11 Fitch-rated CEE sovereigns.The region would face a significant macro shock, including in many cases negative growth and higher inflation: energy generally has a higher weight in the harmonised consumer price basket in CEE than in Western European countries). But differences in mitigating factors mean the impact would vary widely. Slovakia, Hungary and Czech Republic combine high reliance on Russian gas with a lack of viable short-term alternative energy supplies. In contrast, Poland, Lithuania and Romania have largely secured alternative supplies or have significant domestic production. Assessing mitigants and understanding policy responses is key to understanding the potential rating implications of cessation: important offsetting factors are not always visible in the vulnerability matrix.The impact on public finances from the macro shock and potential offsetting measures could pressure sovereign ratings, particularly where credit metrics are already weak relative to rating peers. The Negative Outlook on the Czech Republic’s ‘AA-’ rating since May partly reflects risks from its dependence on Russian energy.
Romanian prime minister Ilie Bolojan stated during an interview on Wednesday, December 17, that there should be no statute of limitations in cases of serious corruption. The statement comes after a Recorder investigation, which showed that several heads of the major institutions in the Romanian justice system allegedly delayed trials for years until wrongdoings were […]
President Nicușor Dan has challenged, before the Constitutional Court (CCR), the constitutionality of the law that requires that at least 40% of the athletes who play on a team in official national competitions be Romanian. Dan noted that the law violates the principle of non-discrimination and the free movement of workers, enshrined both in the […]
Craiova International Airport will open its new passenger terminal on Thursday, December 18, completing a major infrastructure investment aimed at significantly expanding capacity and improving air connectivity in southwestern Romania. It is part of a broader expansion and modernization project financed through the Large Infrastructure Operational Programme (POIM) 2014–2020, with a total value exceeding EUR […]
Romania is set to be connected to the Western European energy network thanks to grid investments worth EUR 30 billion. The funds will be provided by the EU by 2035, and the project will link Romania to Hungary and Austria in a joint project. Romanian energy minister Bogdan Ivan signaled the signing of the new […]
Franck Bagouet has been appointed managing director of TotalEnergies Marketing Romania SA and managing director of Automotive Southeast Europe Hub TotalEnergies Marketing. He succeeds Didier Grimault, who has accepted a new position within the TotalEnergies company. “I am glad to join this dynamic affiliate and confident that, together with our talented team, we will reinforce […]
Databricks, the data analytics and artificial intelligence company co-founded by Romanian professors Ion Stoica and Matei Zaharia, announced on Tuesday, December 16, that it is raising USD 4 billion in funding at a valuation of USD 134 billion, according to CNBC. The new valuation represents a 34% increase compared to the August round, when Databricks […]
