Slovakia, Hungary and Czech Republic are most exposed among Central and Eastern European (CEE) sovereigns to a sudden cessation of Russian gas supplies to EU countries, Fitch Ratings says. Poland, Lithuania and Romania appear least exposed.A sudden cessation is not Fitch’s base case, but is a risk. Bulgaria and Poland have already been cut off and supplies to other EU members have been reduced. Supply and infrastructure constraints mean it could take the EU more than three years to offset a full loss of Russian gas supply.Fitch has constructed a vulnerability matrix showing EU countries’ reliance on Russian gas imports. We have also considered EU and national policy responses, holding discussions with national authorities, usually energy ministries of all CEE EU members. These responses would probably involve supply- and demand-side management and centralised price-setting. We also look at mitigating factors for the 11 Fitch-rated CEE sovereigns.The region would face a significant macro shock, including in many cases negative growth and higher inflation: energy generally has a higher weight in the harmonised consumer price basket in CEE than in Western European countries). But differences in mitigating factors mean the impact would vary widely. Slovakia, Hungary and Czech Republic combine high reliance on Russian gas with a lack of viable short-term alternative energy supplies. In contrast, Poland, Lithuania and Romania have largely secured alternative supplies or have significant domestic production. Assessing mitigants and understanding policy responses is key to understanding the potential rating implications of cessation: important offsetting factors are not always visible in the vulnerability matrix.The impact on public finances from the macro shock and potential offsetting measures could pressure sovereign ratings, particularly where credit metrics are already weak relative to rating peers. The Negative Outlook on the Czech Republic’s ‘AA-’ rating since May partly reflects risks from its dependence on Russian energy.
June is the richest month. The most awaited two weeks in my annual festival pilgrimage. The route starts with Romania’s Transilvania International Film Festival (TIFF), followed by Italy’s (and the world’s) most comprehensive festival for restored and archival film: Il Cinema Ritrovato. To shake up the traditional article on the two, I’ll start with the […]
Different Beauty, a recently opened exhibition of works by Czech photographer David Těšínský, offers a glimpse into everyday life in the war-torn region of Donbas in 2017. The photos were taken within the span of only a few days, as Těšínský traveled to eastern Ukraine to document the lives of women impacted by war. In […]
Different Beauty, a recently opened exhibition of works by Czech photographer David Těšínský, offers a glimpse into everyday life in the war-torn region of Donbas in 2017. The photos were taken within the span of only a few days, as Těšínský traveled to eastern Ukraine to document the lives of women impacted by war. In […]
Roughly 70% of Romanians are “very” or “moderately” concerned about how AI accesses and uses their data, according to the latest survey conducted by RoCoach in partnership with Novel Research between May and June 2025. Distrust in automated decision-making and the demand for regulation are becoming more pronounced, as Romania rolls out major digitalization projects […]
The Armenian Street Festival returns for a 9th edition between August 1 and 3, 2025, in the “Dimitrie Brândză” Botanical Garden in Bucharest. The festival brings into focus the living heritage of the Armenian community in Romania and the diaspora. According to the organizers, this year’s edition aims to strengthen the Bucharest–Chișinău–Yerevan cultural axis, articulated […]
The Romanian mergers and acquisitions market registered a total of 122 announced transactions in the first half of 2025, with a value exceeding EUR 2.7 billion, marking a slight increase of 6% in volume and 4% in value compared to the same period last year, according to an analysis by George Ureche, partner at PwC Romania. […]
