The macroeconomic confidence indicator of CFA Romania Association dropped to 36,5 points

The macroeconomic confidence indicator of the CFA Romania Association dropped to 36.5 points. The financial analysts estimate an economic growth of 2.9% and inflation of 9.5% over the next year.    ‘The macroeconomic confidence indicator of the CFA Romania Association dropped to 36.5 points. This situation is due to the drop, of over ten points of the components of current conditions. The anticipated rate of inflation for the horizon of 12 months continued to grow, getting to an average value of 9.50% as the answers were offered previously to the publication of the inflation rate for May’ the association says.   As regards the exchange rate euro/leu, 88% of the participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu for the next 12 months ( as compared to the present value)not being registered any opinion of appreciation. Thus the average value of anticipations for the horizon of 6 months is 5.0298 lei for one euro, while the horizon of 12 months has the average value of the anticipated exchange rate 5.1125 lei/euro.   “Amid the risk aversion triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as high inflation, the anticipation component of the CFA Romania Association’s macroeconomic confidence indicator continued its decline in May, reaching values similar to those reached at the beginning of the corona pandemic.   Inflation expectations continued to rise, with the expected inflation rate reaching a new historic high in the survey. Regarding the evolution of interest rates, the participants in the survey anticipate the increase of the monetary policy interest rate by the national Bank to at least 6% in the next 12 months,” says Adrian Codirlasu, CFA, vice president of CFA Romania Association.   The deficit of the anticipated state budget for 2022 : the average value of anticipations has increased to 6.5%. The evolution, in real terms of GDP for 2022 has increased at 2.9%.    ‘It is remarkable the reduction of the share of interviewees who think that the price of real estate properties in the big cities will increase over the next 12 months (8% the lowest level since September 2020), at the same time with the increase of the share of interviewees who consider that price will drop (56%, the highest share since the survey).    At the same time, 72% of the interviewees in the survey consider the prices of residential properties in the main cities as being over evaluated.