Romania's economy will grow by 4% this year, and the growth will slow down to 3.5% in 2023 as the central bank will have to rise the refinancing rate to 7% by the end of this year (versus the 8%-9% ideal rate of the refinancing rate), according to a research report published by OTP Bank Romania. The fiscal consolidation has stalled and will resume maybe next year, while the current account (CA) deficit may exceed expectations this year amid high energy prices and slower fiscal consolidation, the report reads, concluding that the twin deficit issue remains relevant. "In a regional context, the comparison suggests a more optimistic average growth performance for Romania. Although, for next year, the prediction is pessimistic, with a lower expected result. At the moment, all areas are affected, given inflation - trade, real income, interest rates or fiscal consolidation, which has stalled at this time. [...] The positive outlook is also complemented by the fact that Romania is expected to receive European funds of about 3.5% of GDP annually in this forecast horizon," OTP Bank analysts argue, quoted by Bankingnews.ro. "Under the baseline scenario, inflation could peak in June at a level slightly below 15%, but in the period to come, the decline will be slow, and we should be prepared not to see single-digit rates until March next year. Energy and food growth are now passing through to core inflation [...]. In addition, we can anticipate another increase in the price of energy for household use in April next year, when the current cap-and-subsidy scheme expires," the report reads. OTP Bank expects the National Bank of Romania to conduct more hawkish policy towards the end of the year, yet along the line of moderation followed so far. "The current level of the key policy rate, of 3.75%, still lags very much behind the evolutions of the inflation and the risk premium for the Romanian assets and it is very likely to see it increasing to 7.0% by the end of the year, while the market suggests a level of 8-9%," according to bank analysts' expectations.
The countdown is on until the start of the largest local fest, Transilvania International Film Festival on 13 June. Or, as everyone calls it: TIFF. To pass the time and (or) have an alternative, do not miss some of the most entertaining stories of all time courtesy of suspense master Alfred Hitchcock. And check out […]
Roughly 45.7% of Romanians believe the country’s May presidential elections were rather unfairly organized, while 50.4% believe they were fair, according to a survey by INSCOP Research. Romania's previous presidential elections, which saw centrist Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan emerge victorious, saw extreme polarization. Immediately after...
CARFIL Brasov, central Romania, is set to begin production of three types of Romanian military UAVs this year, news agency Agerpres reported. The drones, named Cuda, Sirin, and a marine drone, were unveiled at the Southeast Europe Special Operations Forces Forum 2025 (SEESOF) in Targu Mures, the first international expo-forum dedicated to the special operations forces. ...
The National Meteorological Administration of Romania, or ANM, aims to become a European regional hub for professional training in the field of climate change, according to director general Elena Mateescu. The official noted during “The Future of Agriculture” forum held on Thursday, June 5, that the ANM has already completed the European Agrometeorology Center, which […]
Romania’s Interior Ministry (MAI) and Defense Ministry (MApN) have warned of ongoing disinformation campaigns on social media aimed at manipulating public opinion. The latest wave of false claims includes reports about the imposition of martial law and border closures, seeking to heighten public anxiety over the risk of war. Romanians, whether abroad or within the […]
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued new recommendations to Romania, among which is an increase in VAT, but also excise duties, dividend taxes, and the introduction of two income tax rates of 15% and 25%. At the same time, it recommends the reduction or elimination of the health insurance contribution, as well as a change in […]
