Ooni Koda
  1. Home
  2. /
  3. Newsfeed
  4. /
  5. OTP Bank expects 4% economic growth in Romania,...

OTP Bank expects 4% economic growth in Romania, to possibly ease below 3% in 2023

July 21, 2022

Romania's economy will grow by 4% this year, and the growth will slow down to 3.5% in 2023 as the central bank will have to rise the refinancing rate to 7% by the end of this year (versus the 8%-9% ideal rate of the refinancing rate), according to a research report published by OTP Bank Romania.   The fiscal consolidation has stalled and will resume maybe next year, while the current account (CA) deficit may exceed expectations this year amid high energy prices and slower fiscal consolidation, the report reads, concluding that the twin deficit issue remains relevant.   "In a regional context, the comparison suggests a more optimistic average growth performance for Romania. Although, for next year, the prediction is pessimistic, with a lower expected result. At the moment, all areas are affected, given inflation - trade, real income, interest rates or fiscal consolidation, which has stalled at this time. [...] The positive outlook is also complemented by the fact that Romania is expected to receive European funds of about 3.5% of GDP annually in this forecast horizon," OTP Bank analysts argue, quoted by Bankingnews.ro.   "Under the baseline scenario, inflation could peak in June at a level slightly below 15%, but in the period to come, the decline will be slow, and we should be prepared not to see single-digit rates until March next year. Energy and food growth are now passing through to core inflation [...]. In addition, we can anticipate another increase in the price of energy for household use in April next year, when the current cap-and-subsidy scheme expires," the report reads.   OTP Bank expects the National Bank of Romania to conduct more hawkish policy towards the end of the year, yet along the line of moderation followed so far.   "The current level of the key policy rate, of 3.75%, still lags very much behind the evolutions of the inflation and the risk premium for the Romanian assets and it is very likely to see it increasing to 7.0% by the end of the year, while the market suggests a level of 8-9%," according to bank analysts' expectations.

Read in full - click here
Taifas: Timișoara festival to feature Radu Jude retrospective, music, and literary events

The third edition of Taifas Balkan Film and Culture Festival, set to take place in Timișoara between October 13 and October 19, will include a retrospective dedicated to Romanian director Radu Jude. The public will be able to see the director's short films, in addition to a preview of his latest production, Dracula, presented at […]

Sursa: Light art festival brings immersive installations, projections to Bucharest

Sursa International Light Art Festival, an event featuring immersive installations, projections, and light structures, will take place at the National Library of Romania from October 13 to October 19. The event brings together international and Romanian artists “in a visual dialogue about technology, architecture and sensitivity,” the organizers announced. “We wanted to build the opportunity […]

Romanian Army reportedly acquires drone detection systems from Germany’s Rheinmetall

Romania’s Defense Ministry has signed a contract worth RON 50.4 million with Rheinnmetall Automecanica, a subsidiary of the German defense industry giant Rheinmetall, for the delivery of drone detection systems, Economedia.ro reported. The radar system will be delivered within 18 months at most and will reportedly be...

Western Romania: Former cinema hall in Cluj to reopen as music hub

The former Steaua Roșie cinema in Cluj-Napoca will reopen as Edison-House of Music, a cultural hub dedicated to music and community, the organizers of the Jazz in the Park festival announced. Built in the early 1900s, the Edison building became, after World War II, the Steaua Roșie cinema. After 1989, the venue underwent several changes […]

Romania reports record levels of precipitation after cyclone Barbara in early October

Unprecedented amounts of precipitation have been recorded in Romania as cyclone Barbara hit the country on October 5-8, according to the authorities. At the same time, Bucharest exceeded the absolute maximum levels of rain for October. “Between October 5–8, 2025, Romania was affected by the Mediterranean cyclone Barbara, which formed over the Ionian Sea and […]

Romania launches first AI Factory as part of European innovation network

Romania is one of six European countries recently selected to develop a new artificial intelligence and supercomputing center under the EuroHPC – AI Factories program. The project, known as the AI Factory, will be Romania’s first national AI infrastructure, marking a major step toward strengthening its digital and research capabilities. The initiative will be led […]