Agriculture: Positive prospects for 2026 farming year, with uncertainties about costs and financing

Prospects for farming year 2026 are positive, especially about autumn crops, which represent over 70% of total, but farmers will continue to be faced with uncertainties concerning prices, costs and access to financing.   Liviu Dobre, CEO Agricover Holding, estimates for 2026 an increase of production costs in agriculture between 7% and 10%, on the background of higher prices of diesel oil and fodder. “As for seeds, fodder or fuel, the effect of price increases is reduced for autumn cultures because farmers made provisions in the fall and benefitted from lower costs. Perhaps fuel andfodder put together mean an increase of production expenses between 7 and 10%,” he added.   As for financing in agriculture, costs will remain high in 2026. “The cost of credit will remain high. Inflation remains high and pressure on it persists, so we do not anticipate drops of financing costs,” Dobre explained.   Depending on fodder imports remains a sensitive aspect, but resuming the acitivyt of Azomures plant may significantly reduce logistic costs. Although the Iran conflict produced irregularities in the transport chain, fodder supply in Romania has not been affected. “There are some problems, but they do not affect us yet. They do not affect availability,” he aded.   The representative of Agricover considers that managing risks is becoming more important for farmers, about 2.5 million ha of cultures being ensured last year, especially by large farms.   In this context, the implementation of a functional system of reducing risks in agriculture is necessary, wither with a risk fund, or a minimum insurance, such as PAID.   “One of the solutions is the risk fund , inspired by the French model. The second option is a low mandatory insurance, which covers catastrophic risks. At present, the state pays a lot of money for damages. Maybe part of those amounts could be directed to a mandatory insurance system, so that the sums paid by the Romanian state could drop and the risk be taken by insurance companies,” he showed. According to the source, selecting this solutions depends on the farmers. “Both choices can function, with no preference. It is important that something that function could exist,”Dobre poined out.   Referring to the farming year 2025, the specalists say it was above average, with record crops of over 30 million tons of cereals, but farmers operated in a difficult context, marked by the drop of margins and cost rises, which put pressure on incomes.   An important phenomenon noticed last year concerned the change in culture structure, with a more important focus on autumn crops. “I saw a migration from a 50-50 structure between autumn and spring cultures to one in which autumn crops represent 70% of area,”he added, pointing out that those were considered safer in the context of climate changes.   Although good crops offered Romanian farmers “a breath of fresh air”, they remain financially vulnerable in 2026. “The debt degree is high, margins are dropping at farm level in Romania, but farmers are more attentive expenses they make, trying to better plan their business financially,” said Liviu Dobre.   In the input market, the major tendency in 2025 was orientation to generic products. “There is an increase in using geenric products, with the advantage of a better per hectare price. The market of plant protection products grew by 5-6% in value, but that reflects high volumes, since products are cheaper. Farmers apply technologies but they take into consideration the best report between what they place into the ground and what they obtain,”he explained.   On the other hand, there have been irregularities in the fodder market, generate by European regulations about carbon certificates, which led to higher prices in the last months of the year and to product shortage.   Also, recent evolutions brought additional pressures, in the context of the Iran conflict, things went bad considering that fuel recorced price rises. “The price of diesel oil recorded a 40% increase compared to last year, while for fodder there were increases of 40% for urea/ There are price rises also for the other fodder categories. On the average we are talking about a 25% increase of fodder prices available for farmers”, Dobre added.   In his opinion, the measures announced by the authorities for the support for duel used for farm works at low prices, with excises and VAT will be beneficial for the framing sector.   Agricover group ended 2025 with solid results and a consolidated financial position, in a farming context marked by pressures on price volatility. The company reported a net profit of 103.9 million lei, on the rise by 12% against the previous year while the credit portfolio exceeded 3.72 billion lei, on the rise by 17% against December 2024,.