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AHK Autumn Business Outlook for Romania: The situation of the companies stable, but with negative perspectives

January 5, 2023

The German companies in Romania say their economic situation in Romania is good or satisfactory, although most of them see the international circumstances worsening in the coming 12 months, according to a survey conducted in October by the Romanian German Commerce Chamber (AHK Romania).   The poll asses both the business environment and at the situation of the companies and provides an overview of the main economic risk factors from the perspective of companies. Thus, only 3.3% of the interviewed companies expect an improvement of the local context during the next 12 months (2021: 20%) while almost 27% believe that it will remain the same. A majority of them (70%) think that the circumstantial factors will get worse (2021: 30%).   Most companies (46,7%) expect the evolution of their business to remain unchanged, whereas 37% think it will worsen in the next year (2021: 10%). There is a percentage of optimistic companies, but lower than in 2021: almost 17% (2021: 42%) expect to grow their business locally.   The volume of investments will continue on the same level for 33% of the surveyed companies; further 33% of them (2021: 18%) say they will invest less. Almost 17% of the companies plan no investment in 2023 and 16.7% want to increase their investment locally (2021: 36%). Encouragingly, the number of the employees will remain constant, with no intention from the companies to lay off staff. Thus, more than 63% of the companies intend to maintain the number of their employees (2021: 42%), while more than 30% expect to even increase it (2021: 40.8%).   The highest risk for the companies is still the price of the energy, followed by the price of the raw materials and the lack of skilled workforce. „I believe that the current situation of high energy prices will take a longer period of time and this is why we need more than ever a close cooperation between the public and private sectors, but also between the member countries and the EU, in order to find the best long-term solutions for the Romanian population and the economic environment. It is our goal, it is everyone’s goal, that Romania, Germany, the whole European Union remains a competitive, prosperous and in the same time a sustainable and therefore a resilient investment location”, says  Sebastian Metz, Managing Director, AHK Romania.   The other risks identified for the coming year are for 60% of respondents the supply chain disruptions (the logistics, lack of intermediate products); the demand for raw materials and labour costs, are risk factors for the 53.3% of them. Last autumn, the energy price, the labour costs and its shortage, as well as the raw materials price were among the most important risk factors.   The results of the World Business Outlook survey conducted on 3.100 German companies actives abroad shows that the global economy is facing a tough winter from the perspective of internationally active German companies.   The main reasons are the economic consequences of the war against Ukraine and China’s zero-Covid policy. The highest risks in the business development of the German companies worldwide are related to the disruptions of the supply chains (42%), the high prce of the raw materials  (42%) and of the energy (41%).  „The resumption of backlogs in the industry, of the provision of the services after the end of pandemic-related restrictions and the local loosening of some supply chains should not hide the fact that the strains of the global economy are also being felt by German companies abroad,” says the head of the Foreign Trade department of the Union of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK), Volker Treier.   The companies expectations have visibly deteriorated especially in Europe and are pessimistic in comparison with those in Africa, Near and Middle East, South and Central America, North America as well as those in Asia-Pacific region (except China).   The “AHK World Business Outlook” survey, coordinated by the Union of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce took place during the 4th and 23rd October 2022. From Romania, 30 companies participated, more than half of them are active in industry and construction (63.3%), 10% in services, 16.7% of companies are from trade, the remaining 10% are from other sectors.

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