AmCham: Fitch maintains Romania's rating, but concerns remain over political instability, slowing reforms

Fitch's decision to maintain Romania's sovereign rating in the investment-grade category is important news for the country, but concerns remain over political instability, policy uncertainty and the risk of slowing reforms, the American Chamber of Commerce in Romania (AmCham Romania) warned."Maintaining the country's investment-grade rating at BBB-, the lowest tier of this category, is significant news for Romania, awaited with the same anxiety as last summer's decision, when the country avoided a downgrade amidst a deficit that Fitch had then projected at 7.4% of GDP for 2025. This time, the rating agency's 2026 deficit projection has fallen to 5.9% of GDP, below the official forecast of 6.2%. The report acknowledges progress in several technical areas under evaluation. However, despite these improvements, the sustainability of Romania's fiscal consolidation path, the still high budgetary deficit, and persistent macroeconomic imbalances remain key areas of concern," according to an AmCham release.According to AmCham Romania, Fitch's decision sends a signal of confidence to investors and financial markets, but also highlights the vulnerabilities of the Romanian economy that have yet to be overcome."The Fitch report explicitly identifies the causes of Romania's macroeconomic fragility: political instability, uncertainty in decision-making, and the risk of a slowdown in reforms, all of which are related to how the political class and state institutions operate. Beyond the rating affirmation itself, the report's most important message for the business community is its warning: investor confidence and Romania's credibility depend directly on stable governance, predictable public policies, and the ability of public institutions to deliver on their reform commitments," the release mentioned.According to AmCham Romania, companies paid the cost of reducing the budget deficit, continue to invest, pay taxes, support jobs and sustain the economy during a difficult period, but they cannot compensate for the lack of political predictability, a criterion closely assessed by clients, shareholders and institutional investors.AmCham Romania underscored that, following Fitch's assessment, the next reviews will come from the other two major international rating agencies, S&P and Moody's, adding that every measure aimed at further reducing the budget deficit and implementing reforms, including restoring political and administrative stability, is crucial to Romania's credibility."This moment calls for less political confrontation and greater institutional responsibility. The response to Fitch's message cannot be limited to statements, new promises, or future commitments. What is needed now is immediate action: cross-party consensus on Romania's strategic priorities, ensuring stable governance and a fully empowered government, and the continuation of the critical fiscal adjustment process toward the 3% budget deficit target, together with a concrete, clear plan for euro currency adoption," according to the release.The priorities identified by AmCham include combating tax evasion and improving tax collection, restructuring public spending, professionalising the public administration, boosting the structural reforms needed to fully capitalise on the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) funds and the future European financial framework, as well as making full use of the opportunities offered by the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) programme. In the organisation's view, these objectives can no longer be postponed or subordinated to electoral cycles."The business community and society call on decision-makers and the administration to stop tolerating corruption, incompetence, and the stalling of strategic projects in key sectors such as energy, the digitalization of public systems, defense, healthcare, and education. The current crises in the energy and cybersecurity sectors have exposed systemic vulnerabilities that would have been avoidable had the necessary reforms and investments been undertaken in time. As economic, energy, climate, and security challenges become more frequent and complex, delays in reforms and investment in critical infrastructure, along with prolonged political instability, create systemic bottlenecks, increase economic costs, erode trust in public institutions, and fuel social tensions, ultimately weakening the state's ability to respond effectively to crises," according to the quoted source.With more than 30 years of presence in Romania, AmCham currently gathers more than 600 American, international and Romanian companies with combined investments of more than 30 billion USD in the country.