Analysis: Romania has domestic oil and gas production, but remains dependent on international markets

Romania has domestic oil and gas production, refining capacity and port infrastructure, but remains dependent on crude oil imports and developments on international energy markets, according to an analysis conducted by EY Romania."The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East at the end of February 2026 pushed global energy markets back into a period of heightened tension. This time, the shock affected oil, gas, refined products, LNG and logistics. At the centre of these risks is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy routes. For Europe, the impact is felt largely through refined products, LNG and logistics costs, while the role of crude oil must be viewed within this broader context," EY consultants said in an analysis on energy volatility in global supply chains and the impact on Romania - between dependence and resilience.In Romania, the shock did not lead to a fuel supply crisis. The market continued to function, supported by domestic production, local refining, emergency stocks, port infrastructure and integrated market players, the analysis reveals.At the same time, pressure on prices, diesel, inventory costs, shipping flows and supply chains remained closely linked to external markets.The analysis shows that recent shock demonstrated that energy and logistics are part of the same operational risk. For Europe, this vulnerability is particularly significant for refined products, especially diesel, and for liquefied natural gas (LNG), because of its impact on costs and supply availability.According to the analysis, Romania has several advantages over markets that are entirely dependent on imports of finished products. It has domestic oil and gas production, local refining capacity, emergency stocks, port infrastructure at Constanta and Midia and integrated companies that play an important role in supplying the market.According to the study, Romania covers a significant share of its crude oil needs through imports and the figure of around 75% should be considered separately from dependence on finished petroleum products, natural gas or overall energy dependence. In addition, the domestic market remains tied to international price benchmarks, feedstock costs, the availability of refined products and regional supply routes.According to the analysis, local refineries, emergency stocks, port infrastructure and integrated operators helped the market avoid a physical supply crisis. However, pressure stemming from prices, imports and international market benchmarks remained.According to the study, the impact on consumers and companies remains evident in retail prices including taxes.According to the authors, local fuel prices are normally influenced by international benchmarks, to which logistics costs, taxes, margins and other commercial factors are added. During a crisis, this link to daily market benchmarks becomes more sensitive because several weeks or even months may pass between purchase and sale at the pump.The analysis points out that, in this context, the authorities stressed that prices should be assessed against the cost of existing inventories rather than current international benchmarks. What matters is not only today's benchmark price, but also the cost at which the fuel currently being sold was originally purchased.According to EY, the market also saw unusual situations. Some premium products with slower stock turnover were priced similarly to, or even below, standard products because they came from inventories purchased earlier at lower cost. Pump prices therefore reflect current market benchmarks, inventory structure and stock turnover rates.The analysis also shows that market tensions were reflected throughout the value chain.According to the authors, energy volatility is becoming a structural feature of the decade rather than a cyclical exception. Romania has demonstrated that it possesses genuine buffers through local refining, emergency stocks, port infrastructure and integrated market players, but it has also confirmed that operational resilience is not the same as strategic independence. The next shock will not test whether the market functions, but how quickly and effectively it can adapt.Through its more than 1,000 employees in Romania and the Republic of Moldova, EY provides integrated audit, tax, legal, strategy and transactions and consulting services to multinational and local companies.