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Analyst: Romania's economy will not be directly impacted massively by the tariff war 

May 8, 2025

 Romania's economy will not be directly impacted massively by the tariff war, but the problem is the indirect impact, namely how the customers of companies in Romania will be affected, Andrei Cionca, initiator of the CONFIDEX survey and co-founder of Roca Investments, said on Tuesday."Romania's economy, from what we can see so far, will not be directly impacted massively. The problem that we see today in our portfolio of companies, and we assume it is a generalised problem in the economy, is the indirect impact. That is, we do not know today our foreign customers, especially those from Western Europe, how impacted they will be by these tariffs, because we do not know their exposure to customers and especially to customers from the U.S. So, we cannot quantify at this moment," said Cionca.According to him, the second effect is an increase in the pressure of Chinese products in markets other than the US, and he estimates a major change at global level and a redistribution of markets."A second effect that we see is an increase in the pressure of Chinese products in the other markets, other than the United States, in which our companies also operate. That is, we expect that, for example, in the Gulf states there will be a lot of pressure on Chinese products, because there they will be able to reroute the production that they can no longer download or they can unload on very high tariffs in the United States. So we believe that globally there will be a major change and I think that this is being discussed today behind what we see on television, I think that there are some very precise calculations and some markets that are redistributed today and that will not impact us very much, because we are not directly exposed to the United States, than relatively little, but it will certainly be an indirect impact that we cannot estimate today because of the shielding we have. We are screened by our customers, we don't know what they do or what their turnover structure is," added Cionca.He said that, if a measurement were made, there would be an increase in the precautionary degree of companies.Andrei Cionca presented on Tuesday the 12th edition of CONFIDEX, a longitudinal pro-business survey.

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