Ooni Koda
  1. Home
  2. /
  3. Newsfeed
  4. /
  5. Analyst: RON 5.1 to EUR is the threshold...

Analyst: RON 5.1 to EUR is the threshold around which the fight is now taking

June 5, 2025

Romania's financial market is waiting to see where a new level can be found, and the threshold around which the fight is now being fought is RON 5.1 to the euro (EUR), according to XTB Romania strategy consultant Claudiu Cazacu."We have a much more volatile dynamic than the one we have become accustomed to on the exchange rate, once the threshold of RON 5 was broken. Uncertainty, emotion play an important role at the moment in the market, they played an especially important one yesterday. And now, traders are looking for a new equilibrium benchmark. Because, while so far we were used to levels slightly below RON 5 lei to the EUR, now, at over RON 5, we are trying to find the new benchmark. I think the market is partially waiting, although it seems hard to believe, it is waiting to see where a new level can be found. From my point of view, the volumes are much higher than usual in our estimate. The threshold around which the fight is now being fought is RON5.1. From my perspective, as a matter of opinion, I think the markets are eager to test levels above RON5.1, but I don't know if the central bank is also open to allowing too fast a move. So, I would say that we are following this level of 5.1 for today's session and in the short term. Of course, theoretically, anything can happen, but in practice I don't think that there is a market from which the central bank is absent, and it is not a market that is completely gripped by speculative fever. From a macro point of view, we needed a slightly weaker exchange rate for the leu and this was the moment when it was triggered," Cazacu said on Wednesday.Romania's national currency the leu (RON) depreciated on Tuesday against the euro (EUR), which was calculated by the National Bank of Romania (BNR) at RON 5.0378, up 6.03 bani (1.21%) from a previous quotation of RON 4.9775, an all-time high.Spokesman for the National Bank of Romania Dan Suciu said on Tuesday that the National Bank of Romania raised liquidity from the market after capital inflows decreased and outflows increased significantly, which led to an increase in interest rates.The three-month ROBOR (Romanian Interbank Offer Rate) index, based on which the cost of RON-denominated consumer loans with variable interest rates is calculated, rose on Wednesday to 6.47% per annum, from 6.08% per annum in the previous session, according to data published by BNR.  

Read in full - click here
Romanians to also face economic difficulties next year but 2027 more hopeful, president says

Romanians are worse off now compared to 6 months ago, and 2026 will also be difficult, but from 2027 and then on, there is hope, said president Nicusor Dan during an interview with Romania TV. The government targets a deficit of 8.4% of GDP this year, marginally below 8.65% of GDP in 2024. To tackle […]

Romania’s Digital Payments Growth is Outpacing Merchant Infrastructure

Imran Vilcassim, Chief Commercial Officer, Digital Platforms at BPC, explores how Romania’s booming digital payments outpace merchant readiness and why mobile POS is emerging as the practical solution. Romania’s digital payments volumes are rising fast, but merchant infrastructure isn’t keeping up. Independent market models estimate total digital payments will reach nearly

Being daring, learning, and supporting others: Women executives share leadership perspectives at Bucharest event

The attributes needed to reach the top of the business hierarchy, how to motivate and support the teams one works with, and how to tackle the unavoidable challenges that arise along the way were among the topics discussed at the event Inspiring Women in Business, organized by La French Tech Bucharest. Making it to a […]

Three-fifths of the Romanian elderly face loneliness, study shows

More than half of the elderly people in urban areas in Romania face loneliness, and almost 310,000 of them experience it at a high level, according to a study conducted by the Association Never Alone, Friends of the Elderly, in partnership with Kantar Romania.  The study, carried out in August 2025 on a representative sample […]

Property investor M Core inaugurates new office in Bucharest through Square 7

Square 7, part of retail park investor M Core, officially inaugurated its new Bucharest office last week, marking an important milestone for the company. More than 150 guests joined the event, including partners, collaborators, and team members. M Core is a family of property investment and management companies comprising LCP, Sheet Anchor, Proudreed, and Sheet […]

Hagag Europe Development enters Romanian energy sector via acquisition, plans major investment

Real estate developer Hagag Europe Development has expanded its Romanian operations into the energy sector with the acquisition of BTD Distribuție și Furnizare, a local company specializing in natural gas infrastructure, distribution, and supply. The company has opened a new local division - Hagag Energy - and announced plans to invest more than EUR 400 […]