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Analyst:Falling inflation is an arithmetic correction, not a won disinflation

September 7, 2026

The decrease of 2.26 percentage points in a single month is not the result of an improvement in the internal inflationary mechanism, but of the exit from the calculation base of the energy shock in July 2025, says the chairman of the Association of Romania's Financial-Banking Analysts (AAFBR), Flavius Valentin Jakubowicz."The decrease of 2.26 percentage points in a single month is not the result of an improvement in the domestic inflationary mechanism, but of the exit from the calculation base of the energy shock in July 2025. The difference can be seen most clearly by components: non-food goods fell from 12.3% to 7.9%, i.e. exactly where electricity loses its statistical effect, while services, the component that reflects wage inertia and internal inflationary expectations, remained practically unchanged, around 13.7%," Jakubowicz said.He said that the second element worth remembering is the monthly dynamics: prices increased by 0.58% only in July, which, annualised, means a pace close to 7%, in a month when the seasonality of vegetables and fruits should have worked in the opposite direction."In other words, the current price pressure remains substantially above target, even if the annual indicator looks better. The downward trajectory will continue in August, when the effects of the increase in VAT and excise rates also come out of the calculation base, and a rate of around 6% at the end of the year remains plausible. But this is an arithmetic correction, not a won disinflation. We will see the real test in the adjusted CORE2 core inflation and in the monthly rates in the autumn, when the base effects are exhausted," said Jakubowicz. 

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