Analysts surveyed by Economica.net reveal expectations for an interest rate hike at the monetary board of the National Bank of Romania (BNR), possibly of 50 bp to 2.25%, perhaps accompanied by further widening of the interest rate corridor that would push up further the Lombard interest rate. "We expect the National Bank of Romania to increase the key interest rate from 1.75% to 2.25%. We also anticipate the widening of the corridor formed by the interest rates of permanent facilities around the monetary policy interest rate to +/- 1.00 pp, from +/- 0.75 pp now," said Valentin Tataru, chief economist of ING Bank. Adrian Codarlasu, vice president of CFA Romania Association, believes that Poland hiking the rate by 50 bp this week to 2.25% sets grounds for an increase in Romania's monetary policy interest rate by 0.5% as well, compared to the initial expectations for 0.25 bp hike expressed by the Association. He also warned that the headline inflation might hit 10% YoY in May-June, judging from the factory-gate inflation of 32% (in November) recently announced. Ionut Dumitru, Raiffeisen Bank's chief economist, points out that Raiffeisen Bank's forecast envisages a policy interest rate of up to 2.5% by mid-2022 and 3% by the end of 2022. "We expect the BNR to catch up with colleagues in Central and Eastern Europe and offer a key rate hike of 50 bp to 2.25% at the next January 10 interest rate meeting. The excess liquidity after high public spending at the end of the year should support such a decision. The BNR should remain a net debtor to the banking system for the next two months," he explained.
A growing number of Romanian employees are facing emotional difficulties, with 63.6% reporting they are currently going through a challenging period, according to the latest survey conducted by the online recruitment platform eJobs. The leading cause, cited by 22.2% of respondents, is insufficient income to cover their daily expenses. Other factors include personal problems (14.5%) […]
Romania carried out a medical evacuation mission to assist Palestinian civilians from the Gaza Strip, continuing its humanitarian support amid the ongoing crisis. A C-27J Spartan aircraft operated by the Romanian Air Force transported 12 severely ill Palestinian patients, along with 21 accompanying family members, to Romania for medical care. The aircraft departed from Otopeni […]
Bucharest mayor and independent presidential candidate Nicușor Dan is ahead of George Simion, the leader of far-right party AUR, in voting intentions, according to a poll presented on Thursday, May 15, by the independent public opinion polling institute IRSOP. This is the first time that the former takes the lead in the race for president. […]
Romanian retail chain La Cocoş recorded a turnover of RON 1.18 billion (EUR 237 million) in 2024, marking a 20.7% y/y increase and becoming the first domestically owned retailer to exceed the RON 1 billion benchmark, according to Ziarul Financiar. Founded in 2014 by entrepreneur Iulian Nica, La Cocoş...
Even though Romania's currency, RON (leu), has depreciated relatively steeply in the past weeks, compared to historic low volatility, ING Romania maintains its exchange rate forecast for this year and argues that the national currency could recover from recent losses. "However, it is important to look at the bigger picture: financial markets can often have […]
Romania's industrial production index contracted by 4.2% y/y in Q1 and neared the lowest level in the past three years, according to the statistics office INS. The seasonal and workday-adjusted index (-0.4% q/q) has followed a visible downward trend after the post-Covid recovery in 2021 and 2022. The seasonal and workday-adjusted index in Q1 was […]
