Annual inflation rate climbs up to 5.02pct in February 2025

 The annual inflation rate rose to 5.02% in February 2025, from 4.95% in January, as food prices rose by 4.54%, non-food prices by 4.79%, and services by 6.42%, according to data published on Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics (INS)."The consumer price index was 100.88% in February 2025, compared to January 2025. The inflation rate since the beginning of the year (February 2025 against December 2024) was 1.8%. The annual inflation rate was 5.0% in February 2025 compared to February 2024. The average rate of change in consumer prices in the last 12 months (March 2024 - February 2025) compared to the previous 12 months (March 2023 - February 2024) was 5.2%," the INS press release states.According to the same source, the harmonized consumer price index was 100.69% in February 2025 compared to the previous month.The annual inflation rate in February 2025 compared to February 2024, calculated on the basis of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), was 5.2%.The average rate of change in consumer prices in the last 12 months (March 2024 - February 2025) compared to the previous 12 months (March 2023 - February 2024) determined on the basis of the HICP was 5.5%.The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has revised upwards, to 3.8%, from 3.5% previously, the inflation forecast for the end of 2025 and anticipates that it will reach 3.1% at the end of 2026, according to data presented in February by the national bank governor, Mugur Isarescu."According to the baseline scenario of the macroeconomic projection, the annual inflation rate will continue to fluctuate in the first part of the current year. The indicator will subsequently decrease and return to the target range in the first quarter of 2026, remaining relatively stable in its upper half throughout next year. In structure, the CPI trajectory is configured by the continuous reduction of core inflation, but in a gradual manner, while the set of exogenous components of the basket will print the volatile profile in the first part of the range, mainly as a result of base effects. In this context, the annual CPI inflation rate will reach 3.8% in December 2025, with a value of 3.1% anticipated for December 2026. Compared to the trajectory published in the November 2024 Inflation Report, CPI inflation is at higher values by the end of the current year (more visible in the first quarters of the year), respectively lower in 2026," shows the inflation report from February 2025.According to the same source, the revision for December 2025 is +0.3 percentage points, determined mainly by price increases at the beginning of the year (tobacco products, services with administered prices), but also by a more pronounced persistent dynamics of core inflation, partially counterbalanced by slightly more optimistic prospects in the LFO segment.