Big-ticket M&A in CEE came under strain in 2024, but steady deal volume shows the market’s resilience and sustained appeal to global dealmakers

Forvis Mazars Group, the international audit, tax and advisory services partnership, releases today its annual CEE M&A report, prepared in association with Mergermarket. It reveals that dealmaking in the CEE region suffered a decline in overall deal value, although a marginal rise in deal volume shows the market’s underlying robustness.

The Investing in CEE: Inbound M&A report 2024/2025 study, offers an overview of M&A activity in the region in 2024 and looks ahead to the challenges and opportunities in the coming months.

Overall, the CEE region saw 1,270 transactions in 2024, amounting to a combined value of €27.4bn, according to the reported data and taking into account the criteria set out in the methodology. Though the latter represents a 30% year-on-year decline in value terms, deal volume proved resilient with a 3% uptick compared to 2023.

Despite tougher conditions, particularly in sectors such as automotive and real estate, the M&A market in CEE has yet to witness a torrent of distressed deals.

“We are prepared for a restructuring cycle, but it still hasn’t happened. Most of the activity still revolves around growing, buying, and selling businesses”, says Andrija Garofulić, Partner, Financial Advisory, Forvis Mazars in Adria subregion. “But if instability continues, we may see distressed opportunities and restructurings over the next 12 months.”

Private equity (PE) dealmaking in CEE was also somewhat muted in 2024. Indeed, buyout volumes have fallen consistently in the region since 2021, with 160 announced in 2024, down 2% from 2023. Total buyout value, meanwhile, followed the same up-and-down trend that has been observed in the region for most of the last decade. The 160 buyouts announced in 2024 were worth a combined €5.6bn, down 18% compared to 2023 but comfortably ahead of 2022’s total (€4.4bn).

Despite the subdued year-on-year value totals, there are reasons to keep an optimistic outlook about the PE arena’s potential in CEE, spurred by broader European interest and financing in the region. “European fundings have helped to create new opportunities, giving confidence to PE funds to emerge and expand”, says Răzvan Butucaru, Partner, Forvis Mazars in Romania. “Investors and companies are more confident when a fund has already gone through a rigorous due diligence process to obtain financing. This will develop the region, boost local entrepreneurs’ confidence, and help them build more mature businesses.”

Looking ahead, the major headwinds in 2025 are likely to be political as much as economic. Europe, and not just the CEE region, faces a number of consequential elections in the upcoming months that could result in far-reaching political changes.

But there are tailwinds, too. The dialling down of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East is likely to boost confidence, particularly among inbound acquirers. And, perhaps paradoxically, global trade tensions could even accelerate the renaissance of manufacturing in the CEE region.

“Everyone is talking about trade wars with China. CEE is a natural place for manufacturing in Europe and at least part of this is being transferred back into our region”, says Garofulić.

Growth projections for the CEE region in the year ahead are still positive, outpacing even those of neighbouring Western Europe. Meanwhile, there are signs that looser monetary policy is helping to break the logjam of deals delayed by disagreements over valuations.

Further key findings from the report include:

• Regional hotspots. Poland, Austria, and Romania were the CEE region’s top M&A deal generators in terms of volume in 2024, a pattern that has remained unchanged over the past three years.
In terms of aggregate deal value, Hungary took the top spot with transactions totalling €6.5bn, followed by Poland (€5.8bn) and Austria (€4.9bn), though most of Hungary’s aggregate deal value was generated by just two large transactions.

• Sector focus. Innovative tech and sturdy industrials assets were the top attractions for inbound dealmakers in 2024. The technology sector generated the greatest number of deals, contributing a grand total of 216 transactions (representing 17% of all activity), of which nearly two-thirds (133) were led by bidders from outside the region.
After technology, the next biggest contributor to inbound M&A was the industrials sector, with a total of 82 deals by non-CEE acquirers.

• Deal multiples among lowest on recent record. The median EV/EBITDA deal multiple for the CEE region (across all sectors) was 6.7x in 2023/24, according to Mergermarket data. This compares with 9.4x for the rest of Europe, though the gap between those multiples has narrowed over the last three years.
Interestingly, CEE’s median EV/EBITDA multiple was up in 2023/24 compared to the preceding period, when it was 6.1x. By contrast, the enterprise multiple for the rest of Europe is down, sliding by more than two turns of EBITDA versus 2022/23.

Romania continues to cement its position as the third most preferred destination for investment in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), demonstrating resilience in a shifting market landscape

Romania has not only held its ground but continues to shine as the third most sought-after destination for investment in Central and Eastern Europe. With 138 deal announcements in 2024, the country has seen a 6% increase in deal volume from the previous year, reaffirming its strong presence in the regional market. While the total value of these deals dropped by 41% to €2.4 billion, Romania’s ability to attract such deal flow speaks to its resilience and long-term potential. Despite the challenges, Romania remains a key investment hub, drawing both local and international players who continue to see the country as a vital part of CEE’s economic future.

„Looking at the bigger picture, the past few years have been truly positive for Romania. We have gained significant visibility among inbound investors, and it has been inspiring to see local companies grow and mature. What is especially exciting is the growing diversity of investors, the increased initiative, and the openness to exploring new sources of financing. These are clear signs that Romania is on the right track, and they give us every reason to be optimistic about the future.”, added Butucaru.

While technology remained a key sector in Romania’s M&A activity in the prior year, 2024 saw a significant shift towards energy and utilities, reflecting the growing importance of sustainability and renewable energy in the region’s future. Energy and utilities accounted for one in five of Romania’s M&A transactions, with many of these deals involving inbound acquirers from outside the CEE region, signalling a growing international interest in the sector.

„Romania’s largest energy and utilities deal in 2024 (and the sixth-biggest deal overall in the CEE region) saw Greek state-owned utility Public Power Corp acquire a portfolio of renewable energy assets from Evryo Power - which is owned by funds managed by Macquarie Asset Management – for a total enterprise value of approximately €700m. On the other hand, technology still remains a strong contender, with Romania's tech sector continuing to see solid M&A activity.”, mentioned Adrian Mihalcea, Director, Deal Advisory, Forvis Mazars in Romania.

With Romania on the cusp of major infrastructural and geopolitical milestones, the outlook for its M&A landscape remains robust. Full accession to the Schengen Area, effective since January 2025, will significantly enhance cross-border movement, making the country an even more attractive hub for international investors. Coupled with one of Europe’s most ambitious road-building programmes - nearly 800km of highways and express roads currently under construction - Romania is poised to further solidify its strategic position in Central and Eastern Europe. These developments not only promise to drive economic growth but also to foster an environment ripe for continued investment, innovation, and prosperity.

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