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BNR revises upwards to 6.1pct its inflation forecast for end-2026

September 9, 2026

  The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has revised upwards, to 6.1%, from 5.5% previously, its inflation forecast for the end of 2026 and anticipates that it will reach 3.4% at the end of 2027, as against 2.9% previously, according to data presented on Thursday by the governor of the National Bank of Romania, Mugur Isarescu."Our forecast looks like this: rapid, strong decrease in inflation throughout the end of the year, with fluctuations, especially in the last months of this year. My colleagues introduced to the previous forecast, a slight increase from 5.5% to 6.1%for December. Why? Because what is now certain has been introduced: heatwave, drought and the impact on electricity production and, in general, the impact on the energy situation in Romania. But, even 0.5 points higher, the trend is still decreasing, and we enter the range of variation around the target in Q4 2027. So we have, in essence, kept the prospect of a broad correction in this quarter, an almost halving of the annual inflation rate, as a result of the dissipation of the direct statistical effects related to the increase in VAT rates, excise duties and electricity prices in the previous year. And gradually, over the next year, we enter the inflation target, a gradual decrease in inflation and we hope that, in the absence of factors that can change this trajectory, we will reach the target in Q4-2024," said Mugur Isarescu, at a conference for the presentation of the Inflation Report.He mentioned that for this year, there is a further increase in fuel prices. According to the presentation data, fuels have a share of 1.1 percentage points in the final inflation of 6.1%.

The text of this article has been partially taken from the publication:
http://actmedia.eu/daily/bnr-revises-upwards-to-6.1pct-its-inflation-forecast-for-end-2026/121206
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