CFA Romania analysts' economic growth expectations for 2025 at 0.8 pct on average

Financial analysts expect Romania's economic growth to stand at 0.8% on average in 2025, with some participants even anticipating a recession, according to the monthly survey conducted by the CFA Romania Association.The state budget deficit forecast for 2025 is slightly up compared to the previous year, to an average of 7.6% of GDP, and public debt expressed as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 59% in the next 12 months, the organization said in a release on Monday.The inflation rate anticipated for a 12-month horizon (August 2026) increased compared to the previous month to 6.46%, with over 56% of the respondents predicting it to go up.Regarding the exchange rate expectations, around 94% of the respondents predict a depreciation of the domestic leu against the euro in the next 12 months. Thus, the average projection for the next six months is for a rate of RON 5.1015 for one euro, while for the 12-month horizon, the average anticipated exchange rate is RON 5.1716 for one euro.As far as urban residential property prices are concerned, 69% of the respondents anticipate stagnation in the next 12 months, while 31% expect them to in increase. Also, 69% of participants in the survey consider that the current prices are overestimated, and 31% that they are correctly assessed.Following the sharp decline recorded in June, the Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator produced by the CFA Romania Association was 5 points up this July to 34.9 points, with its two components following divergent directions: the anticipation component increased by 8.6 points to 33.6, while the current conditions component further dropped by 2.2 points to 37.5, reflecting the worsening of current conditions.The CFA Romania Association has been carrying out this monthly survey for 14 years now, as an indicator whereby the organization attempts to quantify the anticipations of financial analysts regarding Romania's economic activity over a one-year horizon. The survey is conducted in the last week of each month and the participants are members of the CFA Romania Association and candidates for levels II and III of the CFA exam.CFA Romania is the association of Romanian investment professionals who hold the certification of Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), a credential granted by the US-based CFA Institute. The association currently has over 270 members.