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CFA Romania analysts estimate 2.3pct economic growth this year

May 26, 2022

CFA Romania analysts estimate an economic growth of 2.3pct this year, down from previous forecasts, according to a press release of the organization sent on Thursday."Against the background of the risk aversion triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as well as high inflation, the anticipation component of the CFA Romania's macroeconomic confidence indicator continued to decline in April. Moreover, inflation expectations also continued to rise, with the forecast inflation rate reaching a historic maximum of the poll. In terms of the evolution of interest rates, the participants in the survey anticipate further interest rate increases by the National Bank in the next 12 months," said Adrian Codirlasu, vice president of the CFA Romania Association.According to the same source, the macroeconomic confidence indicator of the CFA Romania association remained constant, at 40.9 points. This situation was due to the divergent development of the two components of the indicator. The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon continued to rise, reaching an average of 8.43pct, as answers were provided prior to the publication of the quarterly inflation report.Regarding the euro/leu exchange rate, more than 82pct of the participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months (compared to the current value), with no appreciation opinion recorded. Thus, the average value of the estimates for the 6-month horizon is 5.0048 lei for one euro while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is 5.0584 lei for one euro.The organization also notes a further decline in the share of respondents who believe that residential real estate prices in major cities will increase in the next 12 months (13.0pct, the lowest level since November 2020), at the same time with the increase in the share of participants who believe that the price will decrease (47.8pct, the highest share in November 2020). At the same time, 73.9pct of survey participants consider residential property prices in major cities to be overvalued.Regarding the deficit of the state budget anticipated for 2022, the average value of anticipations increased to 6.9pct. The evolution, in real terms, of the GDP in 2022, decreased to 2.3pct compared to 5.9pct, as previously forecast.

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