CFA Romania estimates budget deficit of 7.3pct of GDP and public debt of 57pct this year

The state budget deficit forecast for 2025 has increased to the average value of expectations of 7.3% of GDP and economic growth expectations are at the average value of 1.3%, according to the estimates of analysts from the CFA Romania Association.Public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 57% in the next 12 months.The expected inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (January 2026) was at the average value of 5.02%.Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, over 85% of the participants anticipate a depreciation of the RON in the next 12 months. Thus, the average value of the expectations for the 6-month horizon is 5.0404 RON for one euro, while for the 12-month horizon, the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is 5.0886 RON for one euro."Although, in December, after the strong decrease in the previous month, the macroeconomic confidence indicator corrected, it remains at an extremely low level in the context of the high uncertainty regarding the evolution of the Romanian economy. It is also worth noting the further reduction in economic growth expectations for 2025 as well as the increase in budget deficit expectations," stated Adrian Codirlasu, president of the CFA Romania Association, in a statement sent on Thursday.The Association's Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator increased in December by 6.7 points, to a value of 38.1 points. According to the same source, this situation was due to the increase in both of its components. Thus, the anticipation component increased by 7.5 points, to a value of 30.8 points. At the same time, the current conditions component increased by 4.9 points, to a value of 52.7 points.Regarding the evolution of residential property prices in cities, 39% of participants anticipate stagnation in the next 12 months, while 32% anticipate an increase and 29% a decrease. Also, 68% of participants consider that current prices are overvalued, and 29% that they are correctly valued.The survey is conducted monthly by the CFA Romania Association, for over 13 years, and represents an indicator through which the organization wishes to quantify the expectations of financial analysts regarding economic activity in Romania for a one-year time horizon. The survey is conducted in the last week of each month and the participants are members of the CFA Romania Association and candidates for levels II and III of the CFA exam.The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator takes values between 0 (lack of confidence) and 100 (full confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on 6 questions regarding current conditions - regarding the business environment and the labour market and the one-year expectations for the business environment, the labour market, the evolution of personal income at the economy level and the evolution of personal wealth at the economy level.In addition to the questions required for the calculation of the Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator, the survey also assesses expectations, also for a one-year horizon, for the inflation rate, interest rates, the EUR/RON exchange rate, the BET stock market index and global macroeconomic conditions.The CFA Romania Association is the organization of investment professionals in Romania, holders of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) title, a qualification administered by the CFA Institute (USA). Currently, the CFA Romania Association has over 250 members, holders of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) title.