CFA Romania : Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator down by 0.5 points in September

The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator produced by the CFA Romania Association fell slightly in September, by 0.5 points, to 47.4 points.According to a press release issued by CFR Romania on Thursday, this situation was the effect of the decrease in the current conditions component. The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon decreased compared to the previous year and stood at an average of 6.86 percent."The slowdown in economic growth and the new tax measures were also reflected in the current conditions component of the confidence indicator, which fell by 6.6 points from the previous year. Also, the conduct of fiscal policy was reflected in the budget deficit expectations for the current year, with the anticipated deficit for this year recording the highest value since the beginning of the year," said Adrian Codirlasu, Vice President of CFA Romania.As for the exchange rate EURO (EUR) to Romanian leu (RON), over 84 percent of the participants anticipate a depreciation of the RON in the next 12 months. No opinion envisaging its appreciation was registered. Thus, the average value of expectations for the 6-month horizon is 5.0169 RON for one EUR, while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is 5.0607 RON for one EUR.As regards the evolution of residential property prices in the cities, 53 percent of the participants anticipate a decrease in prices, while 42 percent say that the prices of residential property will decrease in the next 12 months.Also, 73 percent of participants believe that current prices are overpriced and 21 percent that they are correctly priced.According to the cited source, the average value of the state budget deficit expectations for this year is 5.8 percent. For the year 2023, the anticipated value of real GDP growth is 2.2 percent.Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 54 percent in the next 12 months.