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CFA Romania: We may have a mild recession this year

May 8, 2025

The present situation is a very complicated one from the economic point if view, the risk for recession has increased significantly and it is possible to have a slight recession this year, says on Monday Adrian Codirlasu, chairman of the Association CFA Romania during a meeting with the press.‘In these conditions, the risk for recession I would say has increased significantly. So, it is possible to have a slight recession this year. What could change to get us a harder recession? It would be a downgrading of Romania to the non-investment-grade category. If you actually look at the economic fundamentals, like the two deficits, the current account deficit and the budget deficit, they take us out of the investment-grade category. In case we are downgraded? Yes, we can expect a severe recession, which also comes with higher interest rates and the depreciation of the leu’ explained Adrian Codirlasu.Asked when we could see clearly if Romania was going to face a recession this year, he stated that the answer could come in the first part of this year.'As numbers, when we see the first GDP figure for the first quarter. I wouldn't be surprised if it's slightly negative, because basically, until the elections, I don't think investors are going to make big steps to invest in Romania. Therefore, we could see this slightly negative development of the economy in the first half of the year, and after the elections it will matter for us to keep this rating how credible the government's fiscal policy will be. Whether it will be the same government or a new government, but the credibility of fiscal policy will be crucial. Again, what the rating agencies are saying, the fact that they are keeping us in the investment recommended rating category, is precisely the fact that they are members of the European Union and we are taking European money. So it is essential that we take European money and stick with pro-European policies. I think that a turn towards Euroscepticism will certainly lead us to a rating that is not recommended for investment', said Adrian Codirlasu.   The budget for this year is built on economic growth of 2.5% and a budgetary deficit of 7% of GDP.

The text of this article has been partially taken from the publication:
http://actmedia.eu/daily/cfa-romania-we-may-have-a-mild-recession-this-year/113461
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