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CFA Romania's Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator advances 4.7 points this June

August 28, 2024

The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator produced by the CFA Romania Association was 4.7 points up this June to 52.1 points, as an effect of the 5.6-point increase in the current conditions component of the indicator and of the advance by 4.3 points of the anticipation component.The inflation rate anticipated for the 12-month horizon (June 2025) decreased compared to the previous report to an average of 4.67 percent. Approximately 71 percent of the respondents expect the inflation rate to drop in the next 12 months. Also, a considerable share of the participants (46 percent) anticipate that the inflation rate will enter the target band (1.5 percent - 3.5 percent) in 2026.Regarding exchange rate expectations, around 86 percent of the respondents predict a depreciation of the domestic leu in the next 12 months, while the rest see it keeping steady. Thus, the average projections for the next six months are for a rate of RON 5.0133 for one euro, while for the coming 12 months, the average anticipated exchange rate is RON 5.0722 for one euro.As far as the evolution of urban residential property prices is concerned, 64 percent of the respondents anticipate a stagnation in the next 12 months, while 21 percent expect them to increase. Also, 50 percent of the participants in the survey believe that the current prices are fairly assessed, and 43 percent consider that they are overestimated.The state budget deficit for 2024 was upwardly adjusted from the previous report and stands at 6.5 percent, while economic growth expectations for the current year remained relatively constant compared to 2023, at 2.8 percent.The public debt expressed as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 53 percent in the next 12 months.  

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