CFA Society Romania's Macroeconomic Confidence Index, up 2.3 points in Jan 2025

  CFA Society Romania's Macroeconomic Confidence Index increased by 2.3 points in January 2025, to 40.4 points, and the inflation rate in the next 12 months is anticipated at 4.97%."Also this year, the main challenges of the Romanian economy will be the a wide government deficit, economic growth below potential, as well as inflation. Thus, the participants in the survey are expecting the deficit to narrow by only one percentage point, economic growth similar to the one recorded in the previous year and also the inflation rate levelling out at its current value," according to Adrian Codirlasu, vice-president of the CFA Romania Society.The Macroeconomic Confidence Index increased in January by 2.3 points, up to 40.4 points. This situation was due to an increase in both its components. Thus, the expectations component increased by 1.7 points, to 32.5 points. At the same time, the current conditions component increased by 3.5 points, to 56.2 points.At the same time, the anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (February 2026) stood at an average of 4.97%.As for the euro (EUR)/leu (RON) exchange rate, all participants anticipate a depreciation of the national currency in the next 12 months. Thus, the average value of the anticipations for the 6-month horizon is RON 5.0759 lei to the euro, while for the 12-month horizon, the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is RON 5.1595 to the euro.Regarding the developments in residential property prices in cities, 39% of the participants are expecting stagnation in the next 12 months, while 45% are expecting an increase and 29% a decrease. Also, 62% of the participants consider that the current prices are overvalued, and 33% that they are correctly valued.The government deficit forecast for 2025 stayed at the average value of expectations of 7.3% of GDP. Economic growth expectations for 2025 are slightly higher than the previous year, at an average value of 1.5%.The public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 55% in the next 12 months.The survey has been conducted monthly by the CFA Society Romania for over 13 years, being an indicator through which the organisation wants to quantify the expectations of financial analysts regarding the economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.CFA Society Romania is an organisation of investment professionals in Romania, holders of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) title, a qualification administered by the US CFA Institute.