CFA Society Romania's Macroeconomic Confidence Index increased by 2.3 points in January 2025, to 40.4 points, and the inflation rate in the next 12 months is anticipated at 4.97%."Also this year, the main challenges of the Romanian economy will be the a wide government deficit, economic growth below potential, as well as inflation. Thus, the participants in the survey are expecting the deficit to narrow by only one percentage point, economic growth similar to the one recorded in the previous year and also the inflation rate levelling out at its current value," according to Adrian Codirlasu, vice-president of the CFA Romania Society.The Macroeconomic Confidence Index increased in January by 2.3 points, up to 40.4 points. This situation was due to an increase in both its components. Thus, the expectations component increased by 1.7 points, to 32.5 points. At the same time, the current conditions component increased by 3.5 points, to 56.2 points.At the same time, the anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (February 2026) stood at an average of 4.97%.As for the euro (EUR)/leu (RON) exchange rate, all participants anticipate a depreciation of the national currency in the next 12 months. Thus, the average value of the anticipations for the 6-month horizon is RON 5.0759 lei to the euro, while for the 12-month horizon, the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is RON 5.1595 to the euro.Regarding the developments in residential property prices in cities, 39% of the participants are expecting stagnation in the next 12 months, while 45% are expecting an increase and 29% a decrease. Also, 62% of the participants consider that the current prices are overvalued, and 33% that they are correctly valued.The government deficit forecast for 2025 stayed at the average value of expectations of 7.3% of GDP. Economic growth expectations for 2025 are slightly higher than the previous year, at an average value of 1.5%.The public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 55% in the next 12 months.The survey has been conducted monthly by the CFA Society Romania for over 13 years, being an indicator through which the organisation wants to quantify the expectations of financial analysts regarding the economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.CFA Society Romania is an organisation of investment professionals in Romania, holders of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) title, a qualification administered by the US CFA Institute.
The number of people in Romania at risk of poverty stood at 3.59 million people in 2024, 375,000 fewer than in 2023, representing a 9.4% decrease, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics, or INS. Despite the improvement, nearly one in five Romanians was affected by poverty last year. According to INS, 19% […]
The European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) in Cluj-Napoca carried out multiple searches on Tuesday, July 1, at the Sibiu International Airport and the Sibiu County Council as part of an investigation into suspected fraud involving a EUR 54 million EU-funded infrastructure project. A total of 24 locations were searched across Bucharest, Brașov, and Sibiu county, […]
A Romanian taxi driver who scammed 90-year-old Nigerian Nobel Prize laureate Wole Soyinka was detained by police on Sunday, June 29, according to media reports. On Friday, June 27, the venerable Nigerian arrived at Bucharest's Otopeni Airport. He got into a taxi and asked to be taken to a hotel downtown. At the destination, the […]
Costin Șerban, a Romanian entrepreneur, is digitalizing the construction sector in the United Kingdom with an ERP (enterprise resource planning) solution developed over 12 years and an investment of GBP 1.6 million (EUR 1.86 million). Șerban’s cloud-based ERP platform is called Abilo, was developed by the Romanian IT company Obi Systems, and is dedicated to […]
Border checks between Bulgaria and Romania have officially been lifted on July 1, as part of the implementation of the Schengen Agreement. The lifting marks the end of the transitional period of heightened control at the internal border, which had remained in place for six months following their accession to the Schengen area by land […]
Remus Vulpescu became CEO of the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB) on Tuesday, July 1, taking over from Adrian Tănase as the stock exchange grapples with a market dominated by government bonds. Vulpescu, 53, is a graduate in political and legal sciences from the University of Bucharest and holder of an EMBA obtained in 2017. He […]
