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CFA:Geopolitical risks remain at the forefront of risks that may affect Romania in the next 10 years

April 23, 2024

Geopolitical risks are at the forefront of risks which could affect Romania in the next 10 years, especially disinformation, armed conflicts between states as well cyber attacks, consider the analysts of Association CFA Romania.‘After the fiscal shock in January, which reduced trust in economy, in February trust in economy came back towards the trend during the second part of the previous year. As regards the risks for the next ten years, the first are geopolitical risks, especially disinformation, armed conflicts between states such as cyber attacks’ stated Adrian Codirlasu, CFA, vice chairman of the Association CFA Romania, according to a press release sent on Wednesday.The February exercise continued the survey of risks that could affect Romania, but this time the horizon was 10 years. According to the participants' answers, after geopolitical risks, economic risks are in second place, among which the risk of labour shortage and the risk of unsustainability of public debt stand out. Climate risks are still in last place, with a strong increase in intensity. These include the risk of extreme weather as well as pollution, the CFA Romania press release states.   The Association's Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator increased in February by 8.6 points to 60.7, which was due to increases in both components of the indicator. The expected inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (March 2025) decreased marginally from the previous year and averaged 5.46%, the lowest since November 2021. At the same time, more than 83% of participants anticipate a reduction in the inflation rate over the next 12 months. As regards the exchange rate EUR/RON over 83% of the participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu over the next 12 months, and the rest a stagnation. Thus, the average value of the anticipations for the horizon of six months is 5.0029 lei for one EURO while for the horizon of 12 months, the average value of the exchange rate anticipated is 5,0500 lei for one EURO.Regarding the evolution of residential property prices in cities, the majority of participants, 54%, expect stability over the next 12 months. Also, 58% of participants believe that current prices are overvalued, while 38% believe that they are correctly valued.   The projected government budget deficit for 2024 is expected (average value of expectations) to be 5.5% (up from the previous year), while economic growth expectations have been reduced to 2.5%.   Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 52% in the next 12 months.   The survey has been conducted monthly by the CFA Romania Association for over 12 years and is an indicator through which the organisation aims to quantify financial analysts' expectations of economic activity in Romania over a one-year time horizon. The survey is conducted in the last week of each month and participants are members of the CFA Romania Association and candidates for levels II and III of the CFA exam.   The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 (full confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated on the basis of 6 questions on current conditions (related to the business environment and the labour market) and expectations for a one-year time horizon for the business environment, the labour market, the evolution of personal income at the level of the Romanian economy and the evolution of the personal income at the level of the Romanian economy. Besides the necessary questions for the macroeconomic trust indicator, the survey evaluates the anticipations as well, for a horizon of a year, for the inflation rate, the interest rates, the exchange rate EUR/RON, the BET stock exchange index and the global macroeconomic conditions.The CFA Romania Association is the organization of investment professionals in Romania who hold the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation, a qualification administered by the CFA Institute (USA). The CFA Romania Association is one of over 170 member firms of the CFA Institute and currently has over 250 members who hold the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.

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