CNSP estimates average annual growth rate of 0.1% for energy resources over 2024-2027

Energy resources will register an average annual growth rate of 0.1% over 2024-2027, with a more important advane in the second part of the prognosis periof and a peak of 1% in 2026, according to the latest Energy Balance Prognosis published by the National Commission of Strategy and Prognosis (CNSP).   A drop of 1.4% to 41.581 million tons of crude in 2024, an increase of 0.1% to 41.614 million tep for 2025 and of 1% to 42.022 million tep for 2026, and 0.7% to 42.304 million tep in 2027.   At the level of primary domestic energy production, the estimated dynamic is negative, except for 2027, for which a recovery below 1% if foreseen so that an average annual rate of minus 0.5% is estimated due to the lower coal and crude production.   According to estimates, the primary energy production will be 31.535 million tep in 2024 (minus 2.3%) of 21.465 million tep in 2025 (minus 0.3%), 21.430 million tep in 2026 (0.2%) and 21.624 million tep in 2027 (plus 0.9%).   As for the production of primary electric energy, it is considered that electricity from renewable sources will record an average increase of 2.7% per year over 2024-2027, backed by new investments in hydropower plants at Cornetu Avrig, Surduc-Siriu or Siret Cosmesti-Movileni.   Production increases are also foreseen for natural gas, with a slower dynamic in 2024, based on statistic achievements in the first 4 months, meant to grow to 3.4% in 2027. A slight improvement is supposed to happen in turning natural gas into electricity as a result of the commissioning of new energy groups, with combined cycle turbine, the prognosis mentions.   An annual reduction of 2.2% is estimated for crude production.   At the same time, the production of nuclear power was maintained constant throughout the prognosis, increases of production capacities being foreseen to take place after 2027.   According to CNSP, the import of primary energy resources is expected to resume the ascending trend after the reduction of 2023-2024, due to the import of crude and coal. Following a drop of 0.5% foreseen for 2024 (to 15.486 tep), imports will grow by 0.7 million tep in 2025 to 15.59 million tep, by 2.8% in 2026 (to 16.633 million tep) and by 0.5% in 2027 , to 16.12 million tep.   These resources are designed to ensure domestic consumption in conditions of improving industrial activity (in branches like chemistry and metallurgy) and of export, CNSP points out.