Codirlasu: Coming out of the stagflation will be slow

  The  exit from the stagflation situation will be slow, with the anticipated economic growth rate for next year still being below 1%, while the inflation rate will remain high in the following year,  and the expected budget deficit is 6.7%, CFA representatives estimate.   ' According to the anticipation of the participants to the CFA Romania survey, the exit from the stagflation situation will be slow.Thus the Romanian economy will continue to evolve below potential, with the anticipated  economic growth rate for next year  still being below 1% and, at the same time, although  the disinflationary  process will resume in 2026, it will be slow  and  the inflation rate will be still high in the year to come' , explained Codrilasu in a press release the CFA Romania sent.   The CFA Romania Associaton's Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator increased by 6.8 points in November, as its two components recorded significant increases. Thus, the expectations component increased by 5.1points, to 34.2, while the current conditions component increased by 10.1 points (mainly due to the current employment component) to 42.4.   The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (December 2026) decreased compared to the value recorded in the previous month and reached the level of 6.13% and 77% of participants anticipate a reduction in the inflation rate in the next 12 months compared to its current value.   Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, approximately 77% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months. Thus, the average value of the expectations for the 6-month horizon is  5.1313 lei per euro, while for the 12-month horizon, the average value of the anticipated EUR/RON exchange rate is 5.1733 lei per euro.   Regarding the evolution of residential property prices in cities, 55% of participants anticipate stagnation in the next 12 months. Also, 50% of participants believe that current prices are overvalued, and 46% that they are correctly valued.   The state budget deficit forecast for 2025 recorded the average value of expectations of 8.4% ofr GDP. For 2026 the anticipated budget deficit is 6.7%.   Economic growth expectations for 2025 are at an average value of 0.8%. For 2026, the economy is expected to grow by 0.9%.   Also, public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 61% in the next 12 months. ' Approximately 96% of participants anticipate Romania's maintenance in the investment-grade rating category in the next 12 months' the press release says.   The survey has been made monthly by the CFA Association Romania for over 14 years and represents an indicator through which the organisation wants to quantify the anticipations of the financial analysts with regard to the economic activity in Romania for a horizon of at least one year.The survey is made during the last week of each month, and the participants are members of the Association CFA Romania and candidates for levels II and III of CFA exam.     The macroeconomic trust indicator takes values between 0 (lack of trust) and 100 (full trust in the Romanian economy) and is calculated on the basis of six questions with regard to: current conditions - referring to the business environment and work market; anticipations for a year horizon for the business environment,work market, evolution of the personal income at the level of the economy and the evolution of personal wealth at the level of the economy.   Besides the necessary questions for the calculation of the Trust Indicator, the survey evaluates the anticipations for the horizon of one year, for inflation rate, for interest rates, the exchange rate EUR/RON, stock exchange indicator BET and global macroeconomic conditions.