COFACE STUDY – THE NUMBER OF INSOLVENCIES IN ROMANIA DECREASED BY 2% IN THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2025 COMPARED TO THE SAME PERIOD IN 2024

* The local business environment reports an increase of approximately 19% in newly registered companies   The latest study conducted by Coface Romania shows that in the first 8 months of this year, 4,561 new insolvency proceedings were opened compared to 4,657 in the same period from 2024. Refused payment instruments continued to increase in the first eight months of 2025 by 10% in number and 21% in value compared to to 2024. The wholesale and retail trade/repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sector reported the highest number of insolvencies, namely 1,131.   Economic context – 2025, a year of uncertainty   The first eight months of 2025 were a period of uncertainty for the global economy, fueled in particular by the new trade tariffs imposed by the US, but also by two military conflicts: the Russian Federation's illegal invasion of Ukraine and the war that broke out following the terrorist group HAMAS's attack on Israel. However, new forecasts for global GDP growth have been revised upwards to just over 3%, mainly due to positive developments in emerging markets (International Monetary Fund, OECD).   Romania's economy continued to slow down in the first half of 2025 to 0.3% compared to the first half of 2024. With a business environment concentrated in the top 7 sectors of activity, accounting for 78% (of all active companies: CA> 0) and in the top 6 counties plus Bucharest, accounting for approximately 47% (of all active companies: CA> 0), companies showed resilience in the first 8 months of 2025.   "The current context is marked by numerous challenges that put pressure on the economic and business environment. Romania's GDP grew by only 0.3% in H1 2025, below expectations, and one of the main challenges for the business environment and beyond is high inflation. Among the main factors that contributed to the further increase in the inflation rate are the elimination of the energy price cap starting July 2025 and the fiscal measures adopted starting August 2025. In this context, companies must demonstrate agility and the ability to adapt to a constantly changing environment," said Alina Popa, Country Manager Coface Romania.   The evolution of insolvent companies and their territorial distribution   The top three sectors in terms of the number of companies that declared insolvency between January and August 2025 are Wholesale and retail trade/Repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (1,131), Construction (947), and Transportation & storage (571). Unlike the top two sectors in the ranking, which reported a decrease in the number of insolvencies, the Transport & storage sector recorded an increase in insolvencies from 477 to 571. The reasons for this increase are, first of all, the trend towards concentration in the sector (approximately 85% of the companies that went bankrupt between January and August 2025 in the Transport and Storage sector had a turnover of less than EUR 500,000 in 2024), but also the decline in demand, especially in Western Europe.   The analysis shows that, on one hand, there are sectors of activity where the share in the total number of insolvencies far exceeds the sector's share in the total number of active companies, such as the Construction sector (21% of the total number of insolvencies / 11% of the total number of economically active companies) and Manufacturing (13% of the total number of insolvencies / 8% of the total number of economically active companies), and on the other hand, there are sectors whose importance in terms of the number of active companies and contribution to GDP growth is increasing, such as: Information and communications (2% of the total number of insolvencies / 6% of the total number of economically active companies) and Professional, scientific, and technical activities (4% of the total number of insolvencies / 12% of the total number of economically active companies).   Based on the financial statements for 2024, no insolvencies were opened for companies with a turnover of more than EUR 50 million. In the first 8 months of 2025, 94 preventive composition procedures were opened, compared to 67 preventive composition procedures opened in the same period of 2024.   "It is worth noting that more and more large companies are opting to open preventive composition procedures (rather than insolvency procedures). Thus, six companies that entered into preventive comoposition in the first eight months of 2025 (out of the 94) had a turnover in 2024 of over EUR 50 million. For the coming period, given the monthly upward trend in insolvencies over the last four months, the increase in incidents involving checks and payment instruments, but especially the new tax measures implemented on August 1, 2025, we expect the number of new insolvencies to increase substantially," added Tiberiu Chesoi, Head of Claims Department at Coface Romania.   Most of the insolvencies opened in the first eight months of 2025 were recorded in Bucharest (827) and in the counties of Bihor (412), Cluj (310), Ilfov (240), Timis (239), Prahova (151), and Iasi (147). First of all, we note that the high concentration of insolvencies in the top six counties plus Bucharest is closely related to the approximately 46% share that companies in these counties have in the total number of active companies. At the same time, we see an increase in the level of territorial concentration, with the top six counties attracting 55% of the total number of registered companies, above the level of insolvencies of 51% or companies deregistered of 42% of the total.   An overview of then local business environment   Out of the over 1.28 million legally active companies (according to NTRO), only 508 companies reached a turnover of more than EUR 100 million in 2024, which represents approximately 38% of the turnover made by all companies in the economy. We note a decrease in the total number of economically active companies from approximately 690,000 companies in 2023 to approximately 674,000 companies in 2024. In addition, the share of the top 7 sectors of activity in the total number of economically active companies increased from 77% in 2023 to 78% in 2024.   The evolution of the business environment in the first 8 months of 2025 shows the resilience of the Romanian economy in terms of the number of newly opened insolvencies, which is down compared to the same period last year, and the increase in newly registered companies by approximately 19% compared to the first 8 months of 2024. However, the increase in the number of dissolutions by almost 34% in 2025, compared to the first 8 months of 2024, could lead to a higher number of companies being deregistered in the next period.