Concordia: The economic confidence index has fallen to lows comparable to those seen during the pandemic

The economic confidence index (ESI) and that regarding consumers’ trust dropped in June 2026 at levels comparable to those during the pandemics COVID19 and the deterioration of the economic feeling puts pressure on the private environment, according to analyses made by the Employers’ Confederation Concordia on the basis of European Commission data.According to the quoted source, the economic confidence index (ESI) and the component regarding consumers’ trust gets close to the levels recorded during the economic crisis of 2009-2010 after a gradual decline manifested during the last year.In June 2026, the services, retail trade, and aggregate ESI indicators recorded their sharpest monthly decline in the past 12 months.   “The signal is clear: the downturn is not only continuing but risks deepening if policymakers do not take decisive action. The situation could worsen significantly before any improvement occurs,” the authors of the analysis state.   According to the quoted source, the deterioration of the confidence manifested gradually in all economy sectors, and the perception of the consumers was influenced by the increase of prices for energy and fuel, the increase of taxes, the evolution of unemployment and the uncertainties in the political and fiscal-budget domains.The analysis shows that business confidence has deteriorated in recent months, after previously remaining at a higher level than that of the general population. Concordia believes that sentiment indicators serve as a barometer of economic trends and show that low consumer confidence correlates with trends in retail sales and private consumption.   According to the employers’ organization, data for May and June 2026 show that “the situation does not stop here, but continues to worsen, and this will also be reflected in consumption.”   'This confirms that the uncertainty caused by the government’s collapse and rising fuel prices, against the backdrop of the war in Iran, has dealt an even harder blow to an already fragile economy. The risk that the decline in private consumption will continue remains very high, and the need to form a stable government and implement concrete measures to support the private sector and revive the economy is, once again, evident,” the authors of the study assert.   In conclusion, the employers’ organisation considers that ‘the deterioration of the consumers’ trust significantly affects the economic growth’.According to the quoted source, the business environment urgently needs the recovery of trust in Romania’s economy, keeping the country rating and responsibility on the part of the decision-makers. In this context, the recession will be difficult to avoid in 2026 and consumption will continue to drop in the following months, even if the inflation will follow a descending trend, says the employers’ organization.