Confidence index remains stable, but managers are more cautious

Romanian entrepreneurs find themselves in a fragile balance between optimism and concern. They feel the pressure of an increasingly unstable global context but do not succumb to panic; rather, they rely on past experiences and adaptability.   The 12th edition of the CONFIDEX study, supported by private equity funds ROCA, Agista, and CITR, the leader in insolvency and restructuring in Romania, conducted on a sample of over 500 top managers, confirms this mixed sentiment: 64% of managers expect the global economy to worsen (up from 55% last year), yet 42% believe their own company’s situation will remain stable, while 26% anticipate improvement. Caution is palpable, but not paralyzing. In Romania, the business environment seems to have learned to operate amid uncertainty, moving forward even when clarity is lacking.   The CONFIDEX index for H1 2025 is 51.3 – reflecting a near-identical level to the end of last year (52), indicating a state of waiting while signaling that Romanian businesses are still “holding the line” in a complicated landscape.   According to the CONFIDEX H1 2025 study, companies in the services sector emerge as the most optimistic, with a confidence index of 52.7, followed closely by IT (52.9). Conversely, the agricultural sector takes a more cautious stance (index of 45.7), amid a challenging situation overall.   „Romanian entrepreneurs demonstrate strength and adaptability. For the third consecutive semester, confidence in the economy remains stable—a sign that the business environment has learned the lessons of recent years. CONFIDEX also points to a clear direction: we need an environment that fosters growth and attracts capital to areas that can make a difference. Although the global context is becoming increasingly unstable, Romanian companies seem to have developed the necessary antibodies to forge ahead, even amid turbulence. The traditional approach is no longer viable. Nonetheless, it is encouraging that more and more Romanian entrepreneurs wish to capitalize on market potential, especially if the investment ecosystem supports their initiatives. Behind this resilience lies a clearer vision: to build sustainable businesses that not only respond to the present but also shape Romania’s economic future,” said Andrei Cionca, co-founder of private equity funds ROCA and Agista, and initiator of the CONFIDEX study.   With an investor confidence rating of 81%, managers and entrepreneurs express a growing need for a pronounced role of investors in the economy. Consequently, 32% of managers indicate they require financial support from investors, who are perceived as valuable partners for the financial stability of companies and for developing business strategies that navigate current challenges and scale operations. Managers acknowledge that investors significantly contribute to the financial stability of the companies they invest in, with 72% of respondents recognizing this contribution.   „Private investors play a key role in the development of the Romanian economy, especially now, as challenges mount. Entrepreneurs understand that a good investor means more than capital—it also entails vision, experience, and partnership. Their support can make the difference between stagnation and growth. However, it is crucial to approach this relationship with caution. The myth that investors seek only quick profits persists, and this perception creates a barrier. Therefore, partnerships based on trust and common goals are essential for healthy, sustainable growth,” explained Andrei Cionca.   The results of the 12th edition of the CONFIDEX study indicate a general trend of caution regarding the current economic landscape, marked by uncertainties and risks. The majority of managers (57%) predict an intensification of inflation, while 39% expect Romania’s GDP to decline in the coming months. These projections are exacerbated by expectations of rising unemployment rates (49% of respondents) and a depreciation of the Romanian Leu against the Euro (54% of respondents).   Regarding perceptions of their own business developments, 41% of managers report that their company’s situation has deteriorated over the past six months, with half of them believing that conditions will worsen in the short term. Simultaneously, perceptions of macroeconomic developments have worsened in the last six months, with 79% of managers feeling a decline in the global economy and 72% in the European economy.   Managers are particularly attentive to operational costs, with 73% of respondents anticipating an increase in production and operating expenses over the next six months, which may influence their pricing strategies. Furthermore, in the upcoming period, managers are focusing on essential aspects for securing and developing their businesses. Priorities identified in the 12th edition of the CONFIDEX study include improving customer relationships (29%) and increasing sales (47%), along with diversifying investments.   Product diversification continues to be perceived as a primary opportunity, with 23% of managers highlighting this aspect. This opportunity manifests across various sectors, including industry, construction, trade/FMCG, and energy. The list of opportunities is rounded out by easier access to international markets (15%) and digitalization/technologization (13%). Although these aspects are primarily associated with the IT sector, all sectors identify significant potential in increasing productivity through automation.   Other relevant opportunities highlighted by the study include increased investments (12%) and attracting new customers (11%), both showing a slight increase compared to H2 2024. Additionally, there is a positive shift in perceptions regarding the potential for stimulating market demand, with approximately 10% of companies believing that reducing uncertainties could generate new development opportunities.