Dungaciu: Romania risks remaining in the sphere of influence of its own indecision

In the context of ‘ the competition of the big powers’, Ukraine is only a dossier among those which Donald Trump must solve peacefully, professor Dan Dungaciu, sociologist, politician and analyst, who says that Romania must urgently get out of its sphere  of influence of its own strategic ‘incompetence’ and ‘indecision’.'Ukraine, for the Trump administration, looks like this: first of all, the legacy situation from the former administration - Ukraine has been turned down for NATO, Kiev lost the war, there's no way to get the Russians out, people are dying, Ukraine's energy infrastructure is in ruins, cities continue to turn into ruins. What's more, the future does not look good at all: the Russians, advancing (perhaps) slowly but surely, when they conquer the rest of the Donbas cities, will mean overrunning virtually all Ukrainian defence lines and fortifications. And all they will have in front of them is an open field, impossible to defend, until... Dnieper.   Second, in the context of 'great power competition', Ukraine is just one file among those that Trump must resolve peacefully: Ukraine/Russia, the Middle East (Iran and Israel) and... China. One dossier, and not the most important. Because Ukraine - not even Russia - is not a security issue for America and that's what the Europeans don't want to understand. That is why the dossier will be resolved on the basis of realities, not dreams or obsessions. The framework for the negotiations is the Russian proposal of the unfinalised peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine of March-April 2022 in Istanbul, updated to take into account Russia's territorial gains and politico-strategic claims. Moscow has no reason to make concessions, because Russia has not been defeated. The Biden administration and Europe failed in this project for three years, assuming that Biden ever had it (most probably not, which is why what is to be condemned in the former administration is the hypocrisy and cynicism without limits, not the lack of understanding of the situation),' said Professor Dungaciu in a statement to Agerpres on Monday, in the context of the three-year anniversary of the beginning of the Russian Federation's military aggression in Ukraine.   According to him ‘ it does not look good what is going to happen next, but this is what happens when – from Ukraine’s perspective –you lose a war or – from Russia’s perspective – you win it’.‘It is only a matter of time. The war will stop. Zelenski goes away, left with a possible positive reevaluation in the Ukrainian historiography over decades. Ukraine will get into a period of terrible turbulence and the Russians will claim victory on all channels,they will generate, inevitably, at the scale of the whole society an ardent nationalism,of dangerous intensity in connection with which we only can hope that Putin lives long enough to be able to…tamper it’, explained professor Dungaciu. Ukraine and Russia are 'security issues' for Europe, he says, 'hence the incomparably greater pressure on Brussels than on Washington'. 'If you listen to the indignant and delusional anti-American or anti-Trump speeches of some, you get the impression that Brussels has already set off for Beijing to lay the foundations for a strategic partnership to replace the Atlantic one. Or, if that's not enough, it will go so far that, to get rid of Donald Trump, it will ally itself with China and... BRICS, where it will apply for membership. In other words, the EU becomes a truly global player. In reality, none of this will happen, in reality, Europe does not matter one gram in security matters', Dan Dungaciu argued. According to Professor Dungaciu, 'in the short term, Europe has a precarious security value - even the eventual sending of peacekeeping troops will still be done with security guarantees from the Americans'.   'As for Romania, she missed the US election because she kept her eyes strictly on the mainstream media. The election of Donald Trump - which she had no way of understanding from there - stunned her and paralysed her movements. She had put her eggs in one basket: the Biden administration. The problem is that, still with her eyes on the same media (virtually irrelevant if you really want to understand today's America), she also risks missing the post-election revolution that Trump brings. Torn in two (geo)politically, without a president and under the spectre of an election after which, the way things look today, things will look bad anyway, regardless of the outcome, Bucharest is improvising and, at best, doing maintenance. When the Cotroceni communicates 'strategically' differently from the Victoria Palace on fundamental issues, the essential question is not 'who is selling you and to whom', but 'who are you, Romania, what is your vision and what is your plan for the country?' If you cannot define yourself strategically, you cannot ask others to do it for you. Before - allegedly - entering the sphere of influence of some or others, Romania urgently needs to get out of the sphere of influence of its own incompetence and strategic indecision. This is where everything must start', said Professor Dan Dungaciu.