As we enter the last quarter of 2024, iBanFirst, a leading global provider of foreign exchange and international payments, operating in 10 European countries, presents its Currency Outlook for the RON crosses as well as for the EUR/USD. These predictions aim to give Romanian businesses engaged in international trade valuable insights into the latest currency market trends, helping them anticipate and manage potential fluctuations and risks effectively. Key events influencing the currency market in Q4 2024 For the last months of this year and well into 2025, the driving force of foreign exchange markets and the entire financial system will be the normalization of monetary policy in both the EU and the United States. As central banks make moves to adjust their policies, the effects will significantly shape market sentiment and investment strategies globally. The Romanian presidential elections as well as the US presidential elections will have minimal long-term effects on the currency market. Other factors, including China’s economic trajectory, weak liquidity across market segments, and geopolitical developments in the Middle East, remain unpredictable and could influence the market. USD/RON and EUR/RON forecast for Q4 2024 In the context of Romania’s presidential elections, analysts expect increased volatility for RON crosses but believe the long-term impact will be minimal. Analysts don’t expect a significant drop in the USD/RON rate. Given the current strength of the dollar, if the rate approaches 4.44, it could trigger a technical rebound, similar to what occurred a month ago. This will drive investors to buy dollars again in anticipation of a rise. As for the EUR/RON, there is short-term upward potential, with a target of 5.00. This is largely driven by lower bond yields, driving investors to put tactical bets on the euro in hopes of short-term gains. This also explains the recent increase in EUR/USD. However, this trend is not expected to last, and analysts predict no sustained rise in the euro next year, including against the RON. EUR/USD forecast for Q4 2024 If the U.S. election results are uncontested – a major question – analysts forecast the EUR/USD to fluctuate between 1.07 and 1.12 until the end of the year. Two key structural factors will influence the EUR/USD rate this year and beyond: • US Economic Outperformance: With the Federal Reserve aggressively cutting rates and US productivity near 3%, the US economy is expected to outpace Europe in the coming years. This could attract investors seeking higher returns, supporting a strong dollar. • US Stock Market Outperformance: Strong equity performance in the US, particularly in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes, will attract capital inflows, further boosting the dollar. iBanFirst estimates that the dollar index is currently overvalued by 9.3%, although this is still below the 1980s peak of over 20%. This overvaluation is likely to persist for the years
Some dinners are eaten. Others are remembered. At Corinthia Grand Hotel du Boulevard, the past few months have unfolded like a quiet culinary opera. One by one, Europe’s most celebrated chefs arrived, took over the kitchen of Boulevard 73 and left behind more than menus; they left stories. Now, on December 4, the curtain falls. […]
HORIZON CITY, a €130 million residential project, is emerging as one of the most solid and forward-thinking developments in the Pipera area—both through its scale and through the modern direction it sets for the new residential standards in the north. Developed across nearly 23,000 sqm, with 699 apartments and 926 parking spaces, the project brings […]
Romania’s National Forest Administration, or Romsilva, announced that it is putting over 16,000 Christmas trees up for sale over the winter in a press release published on Thursday, November 27. The trees can be purchased directly from the offices of the forestry districts. Prices range between RON 17 (EUR 3.3) for a spruce...
Lot 3 Pietroasele–Buzău of Romania's A7 highway, also known as the Moldova highway, was inaugurated on Thursday, November 27. The newly inaugurated segment is 13.9 km long. The A7 connects Romania’s historic regions of Muntenia, the southern part of the country, with Moldova, the eastern part. “We are opening another 13 km of the Moldova Motorway […]
The City Hall of Sinaia, a popular mountain town roughly 120 km north of Bucharest, announced that a new attraction, the alpine coaster on Pârtia Nouă, will officially open on December 1. The installation, located in the ski area near the Sinaia Gondola, features what the authorities say is the longest track of its kind […]
The Romanian national team debuted with a victory in Group A of the Women’s Handball World Championship, organized in the Netherlands and Germany. Romania won 33–24 (13–12) against Croatia in the Ahoy Arena in Rotterdam on Thursday, November 27. The Romanian team dominated the match in the second half, left backer Sorina-Maria Grozav scoring 7 […]
