ICAP CRIF forecasts GDP growth of 2.5% in 2027

Romania’s economy is set to rebound in 2027, with Gross Domestic Product projected to grow by 2.5%, according to a forecast, based on Eurostat data, by ICAP CRIF, a market leader in credit risk and business information solutions in Southeast Europe. For 2026, the GDP growth is set to just 0.2%, according to Simone Mirani – Managing Director CRIF Ratings, a credit rating agency authorized in Europe (under ESMA regulation) and represents an elite component of the CRIF Group.   “Romania is undergoing a phase of macroeconomic adjustment, with GDP growth estimated at 0.2% in 2026—below the EU-27 average. This slowdown primarily reflects fiscal consolidation measures and persistent inflationary pressures—factors that are dampening domestic demand and limiting economic momentum in the short term. Despite more subdued short-term growth, these adjustments are expected to strengthen macroeconomic stability and support a gradual recovery, with the pace of GDP growth set to accelerate to 2.5% in 2027,” explains Simone Mirani – Managing Director CRIF Ratings.   The inflation rate for the full year of 2026 is projected at 7.2%, indicating a moderation in the pace of price increases towards the end of the year, combined with the impact of the base effect shift in August. For 2027, ICAP CRIF forecasts an annualized inflation rate of 3.9%, a significant decrease compared to 2026. “Statistical economic models allow us to estimate that the efforts made in 2026 to reduce the budget deficit will begin to yield results in 2027—results that will be perceptible to consumers and the market, not just from a macroeconomic perspective. Prices will not fall; rather, the pace of their increase will slow down,” explains Theodoros Polydoros, Executive Director at ICAP CRIF.   However, a sound economic recovery depends on a much wider range of factors—including political and fiscal ones—beyond just administrative measures.   The biggest problems facing Romania’s economy are the budget deficit and public debt. As regards public debt, it is not the level of around 64& of GDP estimated for next year that is worrying, but rather the medium- and long-term trend and the pressure on the budget caused by high refinancing interest rates. The EU average for public debt is 80%, with countries such as Italy at 130% of GDP. But Italy is not seen as a country in trouble, given that the budget deficit is under control and the economy is growing. Equally important is the rate at which public debt is growing annually, which is below 1% in Italy. “An annual increase of 5 per cent in public debt, for example, is very worrying,” explains Simone Mirani.   CRIF Ratings is a credit rating agency authorized in Europe (under ESMA regulation) and represents an elite component of the CRIF Group. This official certification directly distinguishes CRIF from other global providers of business information and risk management services, granting it the unique capability to issue regulatory-grade ratings for companies. Through this specialized division, the Group combines its traditional expertise in business information with the rigor and compliance standards required by the European financial system.   CRIF is a leading global company specialising in credit and business information systems, analytics, outsourcing and processing services, and advanced digital solutions.   CRIF has a strong presence across Southeast Europe, serving customers through its established operations and local expertise.  In Romania, ICAP CRIF is CRIF’s local subsidiary, bringing its expertise, capabilities, and solutions to the Romanian market. ICAP CRIF helps organisations make informed decisions and achieve sustainable growth through business information, credit risk management, ratings, marketing and sales solutions, and advanced data and analytics capabilities.