The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of the CFA Romania Association decreased in March 1.4 points to 51.6 points, a situation that was due to the divergent evolution of the two components of the indicator: the increase of 5.2 points for current conditions and, at the same time, the decrease of 4.7 points for expectations that have a horizon of 12 months.According to a press release from the association, the anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (April 2025) averaged 5.33%. At the same time, more than 75% of participants anticipate a reduction in the inflation rate over the next 12 months.As regards the EUR/RON exchange rate, around 88% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months and the rest a stagnation. Thus, the average value of expectations for the 6-month horizon is 4.9961 lei for one euro, while for the 12-month horizon, the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is 5.0419 lei for one euro."Although, in the short term, due to the inflow of public money, confidence in the economy is growing, for the 12-month horizon, given the macroeconomic imbalances and high fiscal uncertainty, confidence in the economy has declined," said CFA Romania vice president Adrian Codirlasu.Regarding the evolution of residential property prices in the cities, most of the participants, 44% expect a stability in the next 12 months, while 38% expect an increase in prices. Also, 62% of participants believe that current prices are overpriced, while 38% believe that they are correctly priced.The projected state budget deficit for 2024 is expected (average value of expectations) to be 5.4%, and economic growth is expected to be 2.7%.Public debt, calculated as a percentage of GDP, is expected to increase to 53% in the next 12 months.In the March exercise a survey was also conducted on the evolution of the inflation rate in the coming years as well as on the evolution of the monetary policy interest rate. Thus, 29% of survey participants expect the first interest rate cut in May 2024 and 36% expect the first interest rate cut in July 2024. As for the inflation rate entering the target range (1.5% - 3.5%), 56% of participants anticipate it will happen in 2025, while 25% anticipate that this will happen in 2026.
Romania’s profit share, defined as the proportion of value added distributed by non-financial corporations to capital rather than labour, fell for the second consecutive year to 48.1% in 2024, Eurostat reported on December 7. The ratio was 40.0% on average in the European Union, with below-average ratios in more developed countries such as France (32.2%) […]
The pension law "brutally violates the independence of the judiciary" and "de facto eliminates the service pension for magistrates," according to the reasoning published by the High Court (ICCJ) along with its decision to refer the magistrates' pensions law to the Constitutional Court, Ziarul Financiar reported. ...
The Romanian state, in a document on December 5, expressed its intention to take full control of the National Airports Company of Bucharest (CNAB), which operates Otopeni Airport and Baneasa Airport, where the minority shareholder Fondul Proprietatea has a 20% stake, Ziarul Financiar reported. The...
Romania's Interministerial Committee for Supporting the Implementation of Reform 9 (CNR9), led by deputy prime minister Oana Gheorghiu, has selected 17 state-owned enterprises from a total of about 1,500 to undergo initial screening ahead of potential restructuring or liquidation. The decision marks the first stage of a wider overhaul programme announced by prime minister Ilie […]
The retail sales volume index in Romania recovered for the second consecutive month in October, when it increased by 0.9% m/m after the 1.3% m/m advance in September – but it was far from fully recovering the 4.0% m/m plunge seen in August as an effect of higher VAT rate enforcement amid already negative consumer […]
Romania’s total market production index (TMPI), a composite indicator compiled by Eurostat that combines four short-term business statistics indicators covering most of the market economy, increased by 4.2% y/y in Q3 - the sharpest rise in seven quarters (+0.3% y/y in Q2) and twice the 2.1% average advance in the European Union. The seasonally-adjusted index […]
