Ooni Koda
  1. Home
  2. /
  3. Newsfeed
  4. /
  5. Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator drops 1.4pct in March

Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator drops 1.4pct in March

May 27, 2024

The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of the CFA Romania Association decreased in March 1.4 points to 51.6 points, a situation that was due to the divergent evolution of the two components of the indicator: the increase of 5.2 points for current conditions and, at the same time, the decrease of 4.7 points for expectations that have a horizon of 12 months.According to a press release from the association, the anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (April 2025) averaged 5.33%. At the same time, more than 75% of participants anticipate a reduction in the inflation rate over the next 12 months.As regards the EUR/RON exchange rate, around 88% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months and the rest a stagnation. Thus, the average value of expectations for the 6-month horizon is 4.9961 lei for one euro, while for the 12-month horizon, the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is 5.0419 lei for one euro."Although, in the short term, due to the inflow of public money, confidence in the economy is growing, for the 12-month horizon, given the macroeconomic imbalances and high fiscal uncertainty, confidence in the economy has declined," said CFA Romania vice president Adrian Codirlasu.Regarding the evolution of residential property prices in the cities, most of the participants, 44% expect a stability in the next 12 months, while 38% expect an increase in prices. Also, 62% of participants believe that current prices are overpriced, while 38% believe that they are correctly priced.The projected state budget deficit for 2024 is expected (average value of expectations) to be 5.4%, and economic growth is expected to be 2.7%.Public debt, calculated as a percentage of GDP, is expected to increase to 53% in the next 12 months.In the March exercise a survey was also conducted on the evolution of the inflation rate in the coming years as well as on the evolution of the monetary policy interest rate. Thus, 29% of survey participants expect the first interest rate cut in May 2024 and 36% expect the first interest rate cut in July 2024. As for the inflation rate entering the target range (1.5% - 3.5%), 56% of participants anticipate it will happen in 2025, while 25% anticipate that this will happen in 2026.  

The text of this article has been partially taken from the publication:
http://actmedia.eu/daily/macroeconomic-confidence-indicator-drops-1.4pct-in-march/108348
Read in full - click here
Romanian-born Druid AI raises USD 31 million for agentic AI platform growth, appoints Joseph Kim as CEO

Druid AI today announced it has secured USD 31 million in Series C financing to advance the global expansion of its enterprise-ready agentic AI platform under the leadership of its new CEO, Joseph Kim. The investment was led by Cipio Partners, with participation from TQ Ventures, Karma Ventures, Smedvig, and Hoxton Ventures. Kim has more […]

Average Bucharest driver loses roughly 12 days annually due to congestion, report shows

Drivers in Bucharest lose, on average, 12 working days annually due to congestion, according to Traffic Index 2025, an analysis carried out by the Institute for Visionary Cities. The index compares how much circulation slows down on working days compared to a free-flow regime, for the 41 county seat municipalities and Bucharest. According to the analysis, […]

Romanian Parliament holds moment of silence for American conservative activist Charlie Kirk

Romania’s Senate and Chamber of Deputies held a moment of silence on Monday, September 15, for American conservative activist Charlie Kirk, who was shot dead at a university event on September 10. The marking of Kirk’s death came at the initiative of the far-right party Alliance for the Union of Romanians, or AUR. Both Kirk […]

EUR 60,000 shelter in Romania's Făgăraș Mountains to be completed this autumn

A mountain shelter is scheduled to open this fall in the Făgăraș Mountains' Curmătura Bratilei area following a EUR 60,000 investment. The shelter, located at an altitude of 2,100 meters, is built by the private ophthalmopediatric hospital Infosan in partnership with the non-profit Carpați Mountain Association and the Brașov Emergency Situations Inspectorate (ISU Brașov). The […]

Trailer released for ‘The Yellow Tie’ biopic on Romanian conductor Sergiu Celibidache

The official trailer for The Yellow Tie/Cravata Galbenă, a major international production about the life of renowned Romanian conductor Sergiu Celibidache, has been released, with the film set to hit cinemas nationwide on November 14. The cast includes John Malkovich and Miranda Richardson, both double Academy Award nominees, along with Ben Schnetzer, Kate Phillips, Sean […]

Romania’s cancelled 2024 presidential elections influenced by Russia, general prosecutor says

The presidential elections held in November 2024 in Romania were influenced by a large-scale hybrid war orchestrated by Russia before they were cancelled, according to general prosecutor Alex Florența. Romania’s presidential election was annulled last December after declassified reports alleged Russian involvement in cyber activities aimed at undermining the integrity...