MKOR Survey: Tense ending before elections: 1 out of 5 Romanians undecided, close scores among main candidates

33.1% of electors would choose George Simion in first round, on the rise by 1.9% against March. Nicusor Dan and Crin Antonescu, main countercandidates in round 1: 19.4% and 21% In round 2, very close scores and number of undecided electors grows: 41-55% of people in simulated scenarios do not know whom to vote Dropping participation against March: only 76% of Simion's supporters say they would go to a single voting (against 87% previously) Absenteeism risk and nul votes are higher than at the end of March, which makes election result very uncertain   MKOR independent agency launched results of study “Consumer Sentiment 2025”, madeover April 24-27, 2025, on a representative sample of 1750 respondents aged between 18 and 65, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5% and a confidence level of 95%.   The study offers a clear image of a very tense election final: close scores between main candidates, an important increase of undecided electors and a dropping participation in voting, just a few days before the first round of elections. George Simion remains the leader of the first round, but indecision reaches alarming levels.   In the voting intention for the first round,George Simion (AUR) remains the favorite, being elected by 21.5% of respondents. After the redistribution of valid votes, his scores goes up to 33.1%, a slight increase compared to the MKOR survey made at the end of March, when the candidated recorded 31.2%.   However, this growth takes place in a more volatile election context. The percentage of undecided electors or those who say they would not vote has grown by 5%: frpm 27.4% in March to 33.1% in April. The share of those who do not know whom they would vote went up from 16.2% to 21.9%, which shows a higher uncertainty, even prior to elections.   Simion is followed now by Crin Antonescu (13.7% gross, 21% redistributed) and by Nicusor Dan (12.6% gross, 19.4% redistributed). In March Nicusor Dan was second. Victor Ponta loses ground, going down to 9.6% gross (14.8% redistributed), on the drop from 17.1% previously. Elena Lasconi goes up from 3.9% to 4.7% gross (5.3%-7.3% redistributed).   This dynamic confirms the fact that although George Simion remains the leader in preferences of active electos, the rising volatility of vote and fragmentation of options make the result of the first round more open than a month ago. The context is amplified by the downfall of firm votes: absenteeism and nul votes are rising, while the electors' indecision can change the final results.   Round 2: Battles to the limit and more confused electors   While in March second round duels showed polarised electors with relatively clear elections, in April the landscape becomes uncertain. When adding the option I dont know/undecided in possible answers, fragmentation and the hesitating attitude of electors come to the fore.   In March, between 35% and 45% of respondents declared they would give a nulvote, would not vote or were undecided. In April, this ratio grows to 41%-55%, according to the tested scenario, a sign of a deep election confusion.   The most important duels: In March, Nicusor Dan defeated George Simion with 35% to 31% (34% undecided). In April, the score tightens: 29% for Nicusor Dan, 28% for George Simion, while 43% of electors are undecided, would cast a nul vote or would not vote. In the duel between Simion and Antonescu, the latter keeps his advance (31% vs.28%), but the share of people who do not clearly state their option grows (41% vs. 36% in March). In the scenario Simion vs Victor Ponta, in March we had an equal score (30% vs 30%). In April, Simion leads slightly (28% vs 25%), but 47% of respondents are either undecided or would not vote (compared to 40% in March). Duels without Simion (Nicusor Dan vs Crin Antonescu or Nicusor Dan vs Victor Ponta) confirm the same trend : very tight scores and a massive indecision increase.   An essential element even in the most balanced confrontations is that no candidate exceeds the level of 35% of votes expressed. Practically, in the scond round, the winner will be decided by the capacity to mobilize the undecided electors and to turn the polling intention into an effective presence to the polling station.   Compared to March, April data show a more voltile election climate, more tense and less predictible. A few days before the elections, mobilization becomes more important than ever.   Dropping participation: absenteeism and nul votes become decisive actors   One of the most worrying signs given by the April survey is the drop of the declared participation in voting compared to March data.   In March, 87% of Simion's supporters and 94% of Nicusor Dan's said they would certainly vote (scores of 8-10 on a scale from 0 to 10).   In April these figures were dropping: Only 76% of Simion's electors say they would certainly vote ( 11% drop). In Nicusor Dan's case, participation is still high (92%) but also records a slight drop, Crin Antonescu also loses ground with mobilization: 82% of his supporters say they would surely vote, against 86% in March.   This enthusiasm drop is accompanies by a rise of he number of people who say they would possibly vote or those who are undecided.   At the same time, in second round scenarios, the number of people who choose nul/white vote , would not vote or are undecided grows from 35%-45% in March to 41%-55% in April.   These data show a major risk for absenteeism and nul votes to decisively influence election results. In such a close competition, the mobilization of electors and the capacity to convince the undecided to vote could make a difference between victory and defeat.   About survey   “MKOR consumer Sentiment 2025” was made online, over April 24-27, 2025, on a sample of 1750 respndents, representative at national level, according to the residence, gender, age, educationlevel and election behavior structure of the fist round of presidential elections 2024.   The presented model validates the socio-demographic distribution of electors and faithfully reflects tendencies and the present dynamics of polling intentions. The study has a margin of error of +/- 2.5% and a confidence level of 95%.   MKOR is an innovative market research agency that combines practical business experience , MBA level know-how and top experience in offering a deep understanding of business. In its activity, MKOR covers all types of studies and offers its clients increased flexibility to understand and delver the most detailed market prospects. MKOR develops a series of research projects which you can study for free on the agency website: https://mkor.ro/studii-piata.