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National Bank of Romania forecasts annual inflation rate to drop to 3.3% at end of Q1 2027

June 19, 2025

   The National Bank of Romania (BNR) forecasts that the annual inflation rate will stand at 5.1% at the end of the second quarter of 2025, and will decrease to 3.3% at the end of the first quarter of 2027, according to the Quarterly Inflation Report, May 2025 edition."According to the updated forecast, the annual CPI inflation rate is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term, with a marginal increase in the second quarter, up to 5.1% in June 2025, an anticipated level also in September. The indicator will resume its downward trend starting from the fourth quarter, reaching 4.6% in December 2025 and will return to within the target range in the third quarter of 2026. Subsequently, the annual inflation rate will remains relatively stable, located in the upper half of the target range. The forecast value for the end of 2026 is 3.4%. In the context of the expiration of the electricity price cap scheme on June 30 this year, the forecast includes the hypothesis of a 15% increase in July, which is however burdened with upside risks," the Report says.Compared to the forecast published in the February Inflation Report, the annual CPI inflation rate is at higher values throughout the projection range, except for the second quarter of 2025.The BNR mentions that the revisions are +0.8 percentage points in December 2025 and +0.3 at the end of next year. Higher contributions are forecast for core inflation over the entire projection period and electricity in the second half of this year and the first half of next year, partially offset in 2025 by lower fuel inflation. Despite these upward revisions, the balance of risks is assessed to remain tilted to the upside in the inflation rate from the values forecast in the baseline scenario.  

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