Romania's economy could grow next year by 2.1% and inflation could be 8.7% at the end of the year, says Ciprian Dascalu, head economist with BCR. 'Our forecast says: 2.1 economic growth next year. To mention some background hypotheses. I think the main hypothesis is growth in the euro zone - 0.1% - similar to the working hypothesis. To give it some flexibility, if from this 0.1% we go to -1/+1% namely an adjustment of a percentage point on one side or another of the growth in the euro zone affects the growth prognosis for GDP in Romania with almost 0.7 - 0.8 %. This is the flexibility in our estimate.Inflation 8.7% at the end of the year. Again, the hypothesis that the measures will remain and they have already been approved extended, the support measures for the costs with energy up to 2025. Another hypothesis is oil price. If we watch futures curve for oil, at the end of next year the prices are anticipated to drop. And this brings a disinflationist effect and for the first round, somewhere a drop in the oil price of about 10% - it would mean effect of round one, somewhere about 0.2 percentage point of inflation. And the effects of round two get somewhere to 0.4%, said Ciprian Dascalu on Friday at the annual conference of the Association of Financial-Banking Analysts of Romania (AAFBR), event organised with the support of PwC Romania and BRD -GSG. As regards interests, he said that BNR closed down its cycle of strengthening on the key rate at 6.75% in November. Asked about the possible key interest for next year, he said that he sees it as constant for the whole of 2023. At the same time, Florian Libocor, founding member of AAFBR, head economist with BRD-GSG stated that 2023 will not mean recession for Romania, but a slowing down of the growth rhythm. He mentioned that next year will be a year of resilience.
Romania has signed a major contract with France for the acquisition of Mistral portable short-range air defense missile systems. The agreement was concluded on Tuesday, November 25, between Romania’s Ministry of National Defense and France’s Ministry of the Armed Forces and Veterans, through their respective General Directorates for Armaments. The acquisition is valued at EUR […]
The European Parliament called on November 26 for EU-wide rules to strengthen the protection of minors online, recommending a minimum age of sixteen for accessing social networks, video-sharing platforms, and AI chatbots, according to a statement from the institution,
The government of Romania will be empowered to establish, ex officio or upon request, by Government Decision, an extended surveillance regime over local companies strongly affected by economic sanctions imposed by other states, according to the legislative project prepared by the government, given that the situation of the assets held by the Russian giant Lukoil […]
The European Commission (EC) will reportedly give Romania four more months to appoint permanent management under competitive procedures at 48 state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the energy sector, after the Romanian government agreed to double the fine paid by the country and the penalties charged to those responsible (ministers) if the milestone set under the Resilience […]
The Romanian banks boasted in 2025 virtually the same record aggregated net profit as in 2024, namely RON 11.6 billion (EUR 2.3 billion, -0.6% y/y) in January-September and RON 6.2 billion (EUR 828 million, -0.3% y/y) in Q3 alone, according to data published by the National Bank of Romania. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio has […]
The Romanian Parliament approved the National Defense Strategy on Wednesday, November 26, with 314 votes in favor, 43 against, and three abstentions, following a joint session attended by president Nicușor Dan. The document will guide national security policy for the 2025-2030 period. During the parliamentary debate, Ana Maria Gavrilă, leader of the opposition party POT, […]
