Ooni Koda
  1. Home
  2. /
  3. Newsfeed
  4. /
  5. Opinion: Romania's economy could grow next year by...

Opinion: Romania's economy could grow next year by 2.1%

January 5, 2023

Romania's economy could grow next year by 2.1% and inflation could be 8.7% at the end of the year, says Ciprian Dascalu, head economist with BCR.    'Our forecast says: 2.1 economic growth next year. To mention some background hypotheses. I think the main hypothesis  is growth in the euro zone - 0.1% - similar to the working hypothesis. To give it some flexibility, if from this 0.1% we go to -1/+1% namely an adjustment of a percentage point on one side or another of the growth in the euro zone affects the growth prognosis for GDP in Romania with almost 0.7 - 0.8 %. This is the flexibility in our estimate.Inflation 8.7% at the end of the year. Again, the hypothesis that the measures will remain and they have already been approved extended, the support measures for the costs with energy up to 2025. Another hypothesis is oil price. If we watch futures curve for oil, at the end of next year the prices are anticipated to drop. And this brings a disinflationist effect and for the first round, somewhere a drop in the oil price of about 10% - it would mean effect of round one, somewhere about 0.2 percentage point of inflation. And the effects of round two get somewhere to 0.4%, said Ciprian Dascalu on Friday at the annual conference of the Association of Financial-Banking Analysts of Romania (AAFBR), event organised with the support of PwC Romania and BRD -GSG.   As regards interests,  he said that BNR closed down its cycle of strengthening on the key rate at 6.75% in November. Asked about the possible key interest for next year, he said that he sees it as constant for the whole of 2023.   At the same time, Florian Libocor, founding member of AAFBR, head economist with BRD-GSG stated that 2023 will not mean recession for Romania, but a slowing down of the growth rhythm. He mentioned that next year will be a year of resilience.

The text of this article has been partially taken from the publication:
Read in full - click here
Iohannis, în Tirana: Romania is ready to continue supporting EU efforts to combat illegal migration along Western Balkan routes

Although Romania is not on the Western Balkan migration route and is not "a relevant source" of migrant flows within the EU, our country is ready to continue supporting the EU's efforts to combat illegal migration, President Klaus Iohannis told the EU - Western Balkans summit in Tirana on Tuesday."As far as migration is concerned, […]

Austria officially said "No" to Bulgaria and Romania in Schengen

Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer stated that Austria opposes the accession of Bulgaria and Romania to the Schengen area. He made this statement during the EU-Western Balkans summit in Tirana, https://www.novinite.com/ reports.   "The Minister of the Interior made it clear. There is no approval from Austria for the enlargement with Bulgaria and Romania. More time is needed. We have 75,000 unregistered illegal immigrants in Austria. […]

Chief of the Defense Staff, visit to Portugal: Situation on NATO's Eastern Flank on agenda of discussions

  Chief of the Defense Staff, General Daniel Petrescu was on an official visit to Portugal, Sunday to Tuesday, at the invitation of his counterpart, Admiral Antonio Manuel Fernandes da Silva Ribeiro, the officials analysing, in context, the regional security situation.The visit also included meetings with the Portuguese Minister of National Defense, Maria Helena Chaves […]

Interreg VI-A Romania- Bulgaria approved by European Commission

Interreg VI-A Romania- Bulgaria programme was approved by the European Commission, the Romanian Development Ministry announced. The programme has a budget of over 200 million euros and is devoted to communities from seven Romanian counties and eight Bulgarian districts.   The Development, Public Works and Administration Ministry declared, in a press release, that the Programme […]

Draft budget for next year is built on economic growth of 2.8%

The draft budget for next year is configured on an economic growth of 2.8%, in the context in which the economic shock caused by the pandemic is one of the most significant in recent history, shows the draft state budget law for 2023 published on Tuesday by the Ministry of Finance.The gross domestic product in […]

INSCOP poll: The majority of Romanians believe Romania of tommorrow will look better

A survey carried out by INSCOP Research reveals that the majority of Romanians believe that the Romania of tomorrow led by today's children will look better, as 54pct of the respondents shared this particular opinion, while 25.2pct said the situation in the country will get worse when led by the children today and 15.7% say […]