Ooni Koda
  1. Home
  2. /
  3. Newsfeed
  4. /
  5. OTP Bank expects 4% economic growth in Romania,...

OTP Bank expects 4% economic growth in Romania, to possibly ease below 3% in 2023

July 21, 2022

Romania's economy will grow by 4% this year, and the growth will slow down to 3.5% in 2023 as the central bank will have to rise the refinancing rate to 7% by the end of this year (versus the 8%-9% ideal rate of the refinancing rate), according to a research report published by OTP Bank Romania.   The fiscal consolidation has stalled and will resume maybe next year, while the current account (CA) deficit may exceed expectations this year amid high energy prices and slower fiscal consolidation, the report reads, concluding that the twin deficit issue remains relevant.   "In a regional context, the comparison suggests a more optimistic average growth performance for Romania. Although, for next year, the prediction is pessimistic, with a lower expected result. At the moment, all areas are affected, given inflation - trade, real income, interest rates or fiscal consolidation, which has stalled at this time. [...] The positive outlook is also complemented by the fact that Romania is expected to receive European funds of about 3.5% of GDP annually in this forecast horizon," OTP Bank analysts argue, quoted by Bankingnews.ro.   "Under the baseline scenario, inflation could peak in June at a level slightly below 15%, but in the period to come, the decline will be slow, and we should be prepared not to see single-digit rates until March next year. Energy and food growth are now passing through to core inflation [...]. In addition, we can anticipate another increase in the price of energy for household use in April next year, when the current cap-and-subsidy scheme expires," the report reads.   OTP Bank expects the National Bank of Romania to conduct more hawkish policy towards the end of the year, yet along the line of moderation followed so far.   "The current level of the key policy rate, of 3.75%, still lags very much behind the evolutions of the inflation and the risk premium for the Romanian assets and it is very likely to see it increasing to 7.0% by the end of the year, while the market suggests a level of 8-9%," according to bank analysts' expectations.

Read in full - click here
The Bucharest Stock Exchange celebrated 30 years since its reestablishment with a series of anniversary events

On November 20th, 2025, the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB) celebrated 30 years since its reopening, organizing a series of anniversary events along with various representatives of the Romanian capital market. Three decades ago, the first transactions took place on the BVB, and the Romanian investment landscape as we know it today began to take shape.  […]

Christmas Joy with the New Boromir Infused Cozonac with Pistachio

With the holidays just around the corner, we’ve created the new Collection of Boromir Infused Cozonac with natural vanilla syrup and pistachio. Unique, slightly moist, and richly filled, our latest assortments of Boromir Infused Cozonac make every festive moment with your loved ones even more special. Each bite melts in your mouth, bringing warmth, comfort, […]

Romanian airline AnimaWings announces new holiday routes from Timișoara

Romanian airline AnimaWings announced on Friday, November 21, that starting in 2026, it will operate five new air routes from Timișoara International Airport, serving holiday destinations in Italy and Greece. The new connections include Athens (ATH), Olbia – Sardinia (OLB), Kefalonia (EFL), Thessaloniki (SKG), and Kavala (KVA).  “We want Timișoara to become a reference point […]

Romania establishes October 29 as Queen Marie Day

President Nicușor Dan promulgated a law establishing October 29 as Queen Marie Day, following the bill’s adoption by the Chamber of Deputies on October 28, news agency Agerpres reported. The new law designates the date as a day dedicated to commemorating the life and historical contribution of Queen Marie of Romania. On October 29, public […]

Romanian authorities place extradited mercenary Horaţiu Potra under 30-day preventive arrest

Horaţiu Potra, the mercenary leader with alleged ties to Russia who previously fled Romania, was placed under preventive arrest for 30 days after his extradition from Dubai. He is investigated for attempted actions against the constitutional order, violation of the regime of weapons and ammunition, and violation of the regime of explosive materials. The same preventive […]

President Nicușor Dan, PM Ilie Bolojan lead political trust survey among Bucharest residents

Nicușor Dan is the political figure in whom Bucharest residents have the most trust, according to a survey by INSCOP Research. The former mayor, now head of state, is followed by prime minister Ilie Bolojan. More precisely, 44.2% of the total sample state that they have quite a lot or very much trust in Nicușor […]