Ooni Koda
  1. Home
  2. /
  3. Newsfeed
  4. /
  5. OTP Bank expects 4% economic growth in Romania,...

OTP Bank expects 4% economic growth in Romania, to possibly ease below 3% in 2023

July 21, 2022

Romania's economy will grow by 4% this year, and the growth will slow down to 3.5% in 2023 as the central bank will have to rise the refinancing rate to 7% by the end of this year (versus the 8%-9% ideal rate of the refinancing rate), according to a research report published by OTP Bank Romania.   The fiscal consolidation has stalled and will resume maybe next year, while the current account (CA) deficit may exceed expectations this year amid high energy prices and slower fiscal consolidation, the report reads, concluding that the twin deficit issue remains relevant.   "In a regional context, the comparison suggests a more optimistic average growth performance for Romania. Although, for next year, the prediction is pessimistic, with a lower expected result. At the moment, all areas are affected, given inflation - trade, real income, interest rates or fiscal consolidation, which has stalled at this time. [...] The positive outlook is also complemented by the fact that Romania is expected to receive European funds of about 3.5% of GDP annually in this forecast horizon," OTP Bank analysts argue, quoted by Bankingnews.ro.   "Under the baseline scenario, inflation could peak in June at a level slightly below 15%, but in the period to come, the decline will be slow, and we should be prepared not to see single-digit rates until March next year. Energy and food growth are now passing through to core inflation [...]. In addition, we can anticipate another increase in the price of energy for household use in April next year, when the current cap-and-subsidy scheme expires," the report reads.   OTP Bank expects the National Bank of Romania to conduct more hawkish policy towards the end of the year, yet along the line of moderation followed so far.   "The current level of the key policy rate, of 3.75%, still lags very much behind the evolutions of the inflation and the risk premium for the Romanian assets and it is very likely to see it increasing to 7.0% by the end of the year, while the market suggests a level of 8-9%," according to bank analysts' expectations.

Read in full - click here
Junot Díaz, Tracy Chevalier, Michel Bussi: Iași literature festival announces first guests at 2025 edition

Pulitzer Prize winner Junot Díaz, Tracy Chevalier, the author of the international best seller Girl with a Pearl Earring, and French author Michel Bussi, known for his widely translated thriller novels, are among the authors set to attend this year’s Iași International Literature and Translation Festival (FILIT), the largest literary festival in the country. They […]

A Taste of Nature: Michelin-Starred Chef Theodor Falser brings his culinary artistry to JW Marriott Bucharest

Bucharest is about to welcome a culinary moment like no other. This September, the JW Marriott Bucharest Grand Hotel will host Michelin-starred Chef Theodor Falser - a name synonymous with nature-inspired haute cuisine - for three exclusive evenings that promise to delight the senses and tell stories through food. The Chef Who Cooks Nature Theodor […]

Government: IMF backs Romania’s fiscal measures, sees 1% GDP growth in 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has endorsed Romania’s latest fiscal measures, forecasting that the economy will grow by 1% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, the government said Friday, September 12, after talks with a visiting IMF delegation. The delegation, led by Joong Shik Kang, met prime minister Ilie Bolojan in Bucharest to discuss the […]

Romanian theater stages robot-only performance exploring technology and e-waste

The George Ciprian Theater in Buzău has unveiled “E-Waste E-Motion,” the first performance in Romania in which all characters are played by small autonomous robots, blending art, technology, and sustainability in an experimental theatrical project. “E-Waste E-Motion” is part of a broader artistic research initiative supported by the National University of Theatre and Film (UNATC) […]

Emmy Stoel appointed as the new General Manager of InterContinental Athénée Palace Bucharest

With extensive experience in the luxury hospitality sector, gained as General Manager of Sofitel Legend The Grand Amsterdam and Hotel Okura Amsterdam (LHW), as well as in various Director of Operations and Business Development roles, Ms. Emmy Stoel is a seasoned professional whose career reflects a deep passion for excellence in guest service, having successfully […]

Update: Six knives found on woman trying to enter Romanian Parliament

Update: The woman made her first statements on Friday afternoon after being questioned. According to Digi24, she told journalists outside a police station in Bucharest that the items were family heirlooms from the Soviet era, and that she...