Prognosis Commission maintains estimate on economic growth this year at 7%

The National Strategy and Prognosis Commission (CNSP) estimates an economy advance of 7% this year, in line with recent EC prognoses. CNSP thus maintained the GDP estimated growth for this year, which it advanced in the August prognosis, but dropped estimates for 2022 from 4.9% to 4.6%.   According to the Projection of main macroeconomic indicators 2021-2025, published by CNSP, GDP advance is estimated at 5.3% in 2023, 5% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, all these figures being unchanged compared to the summer variant. This year, CNSP estimates GDP at 1.190 billion lei.   Final consumption is foreseen to grow by 6.4% in 2021, against a decline of 3.6% last year. In the following years the growth will temperate at 4.1% in 2022, 4.5% in 2023, 4.4% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025.   At the investment chapter increases of 8.2% this year, 9.3% in 2022, 11.2% in 2023, 9% in 2024 and 7.1% in 2025.   The deficit of the balance of trade will deepen in the years to come, reaching 23.5 billion euros in 2021, from 18.4 billion euros in the previous year, to reach 33.7 billion euros in 2025. Export of goods is estimated at 73.1 billion euros this year, on the rise by 17.6% and import at 96.7 billion lei, on the rise by 20%. The current account deficit will be 6.3% of GDP this year, from 5% in 2020, to drop slightly to 6.1% of GDP next year.   Inflation at the end of the year is estimated at 7.7%. BNR foresaw an annual inflation rate of 7.5% in December 2021, the new projection being higher by 1.9% compared to that of the central bank in August. For 2022, CNSP estimates an inflation rate drop of 4.7% at the end of the year.   The average lei/euro exchange rate is anticipated at 4.92 this year, to reach 4.98 next year.   The average number of employees will grow slightly this year by 1.4% to 5.104 million persons, the number of unemployed will drop to 250,000 persons, from 296,100 last year and the unemployment rate in 2021 is estimated at 3%, on the drop from 3.4% in 2020.   For next year, the Prognosis Commission estimates the continuation of the growth of the number of employees to 5.2 million persons and the drop of the unemployment rate to 2.8% and of the number of unemployed to 258,000 persons.   Net average salary is foreseen to be 3,467 lei/month in 2021, after an increase of 7.8% compared to the previous year and to 3,775 in 2022 (plus 8.9%).   According to estimates of the National Statistics Institute, released on Tuesday, the growth of Romanian economy slowed down at 0.3% in quarter 3 compared to the previous quarter, while compared to the same period of 2020, the GDP advance was 7.2% for gross series and 8% for adjusted series.   In the first 9 months of 2021, GDP grew by7.1% for gross series and 6.8% for adjusted series compared to the same period of the previous year.   The European Commission recently reviewed at 7 %estimates  on Romania's economic growth this year after having foreseen a 7.4% advance in July.