Real Estate: Real estate investments down in H1, but deal pipeline could push 2026 volume towards EUR 1 billion

Romania’s real estate investment market attracted transactions worth around EUR 300 million in the first half of 2026, down from approximately EUR 400 million a year earlier and equivalent to around 5% of the total volume recorded across the six largest economies in Central and Eastern Europe – Bulgaria, Czechia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary – according to data from real estate consultancy Colliers.   At the regional level, investment reached EUR 5.8 billion, up 7% compared with the same period last year, according to the Colliers CEE Investment Scene H1 2026 report.   “The decline in Romania’s volume during the period needs to be seen in a broader context. We have several transactions currently underway, while the largest retail transaction on the local market, the sale of an MAS portfolio to AFI Europe, in which Colliers advised AFI, closed just into the third quarter. If other major transactions now in progress are also completed, 2026 has the potential to end with a volume close to EUR 1 billion, which would make it only the second year since 2007 in which the market reaches this threshold,” said Robert Miklo, Partner, Head of Capital Markets at Colliers. The return of capital remains selective, however, with investors primarily targeting properties that offer stable income, strong energy performance, and clear long-term value creation potential.   Regional investment activity in the first half exceeded both the five-year average of EUR 4.6 billion and the ten-year average of EUR 5.1 billion. For the full year, Colliers expects regional volumes of EUR 12.5-13 billion, above the EUR 11.6 billion recorded in 2025 and close to the peaks seen between 2017 and 2019.   The region therefore enters the second half of the year from a stronger position than expected at the beginning of 2026, supported by renewed deal activity and an active pipeline, according to real estate analysts.Romania’s market is becoming increasingly diversified, with interest and transactions across all major real estate sectors. Office buildings returned to investors’ attention and generated around 60% of the transaction volume in the first half, their highest share since 2022. That proportion is expected to decline in the second half of the year as major transactions in other segments are completed.   “Also influenced by the limited supply of properties available, investment volume remains below the level suggested by both investor appetite and the size of the local economy. In the first half, Romania attracted only 5.4% of the investment volume recorded in the six largest economies in the region, although its share of their combined GDP is close to 18%. The gap shows that the local market still has significant growth potential,” Robert Miklo said. At the regional level, Poland strengthened its leadership position, with more than EUR 3 billion invested in the first half of the year, representing 52% of total volume and its strongest first-half result since 2018. Activity was supported by major transactions in retail, build-to-rent residential, logistics, and offices, while the retail segment alone attracted more than EUR 1 billion.   Czechia ranked second, with investment of more than EUR 1.4 billion, compared with EUR 2.2 billion in the same period of 2025, while Hungary attracted almost EUR 600 million, its strongest first-half result since 2021.   Across Central and Eastern Europe, offices returned to the top of investors’ preferences, accounting for 29% of regional volume in the first half, up from 23% in the same period of 2025. Retail followed with 27%, residential with 19%, while the share of industrial and logistics declined to 17%.   Interest in offices is focused on premium, energy-efficient, well-located buildings, while older assets may present opportunities for refurbishment or conversion. According to the report, Romania continues to offer attractive yields compared with more mature markets in the region. In Bucharest, yields remain at around 7.5% for offices, 7.75% for industrial and logistics properties, and 7.25% for shopping centres, above levels in Warsaw, Prague, or Bratislava.   This advantage can support investor interest, but needs to be assessed alongside market liquidity, asset quality, income stability, and local macroeconomic risks, the report’s authors noted.   For the second half of the year, consultants remain cautiously optimistic. Central and Eastern Europe continues to grow faster than Western Europe, although performance varies considerably from one country to another.   Poland remains the strongest large economy in the region, Czechia is growing moderately, Hungary is recovering after stagnation, while Romania and Slovakia face a more difficult macroeconomic environment.   For the euro area, Colliers expects economic growth to temporarily slow to 0.5% in 2026 before recovering to 1.1% in 2027, maintaining the relative growth advantage of some Central and Eastern European markets.   The main risks for the second half of the year include high interest rates, rising Euribor, refinancing needs for some loans, and geopolitical tensions, which could affect both financing conditions and supply chains. These pressures are compounded by weakness in German industry, trade uncertainty, tariffs, and developments in energy prices, particularly in export-dependent regional economies. At the same time, investment in infrastructure, defence, the energy transition, artificial intelligence, reindustrialisation, and the relocation of production closer to European markets could create new opportunities for the real estate sector.