The breakdown of Turkish-Russian relations is changing energy security calculations in the Black Sea

Bulgaria has publicly broken ranks with states opposing the Nord Stream II project. Other are rumored to follow, namely Romania and Slovenia, http://neurope.eu/ informs. The main idea of Nord Stream II is to scale up the gras transfer capacity of an existing route via the Baltic Sea by a massive 55 billion cubic meters a year, circumventing most of Eastern Europe, to reach Germany directly. By the end of November, it appeared that Eastern Europe has a solid front against Nord Stream II. An open open letter opposing the plan was published on November 26th,apparently signed by Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, arguing that the project would undermine EU norms. Ultimately, it was argued, Nord Stream II bundled upstream supply and distribution and, therefore, did not abide by EU regulation. Bulgaria has since denounced the letter. From a national perspective, there were two kinds of opposition. First, there are those who want to maintain the traditional Russian supply route. Ukraine and Slovakia stand to lose €2,6 bn a year in transit fees (1,8 bn/Ukraine; 800 million for Slovakia) and would have to pay heftier charges for their own supply. Secondly, there is an alternative project to the Nord Stream II project, namely Eastring, which plan to distribute LNG by linking Central with Southeastern Europe. That is a project favored by the Baltic States, including Poland. Prague is undecided, as it weighs the pros and cons of a traditional route via Bratislava and Nord Stream II. Germany supports the Nord Stream II project, which enhances its own energy security and geopolitical leverage. Bulgaria and Romania and, perhaps, Slovenia and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia stand to lose transit status leverage if a Russian pipeline in the Black Sea does not materialize. Following the collapse of the Turkish Stream project, it seems possible that an older South Stream route that will bypass both Ukraine and Turkey. That choice would make Bulgaria rather than Turkey the key partner for Russia. On Thursday, November 26th, the Russian Minister of development, Alexei Ulyukayev, said that Russia is cancelling Turkish Stream and on November 30th Gazprom announced it was freezing construction. Financially, however, a Black Sea route seems inescapable for Russia. Gazprom has spent €1.8bn on the pipeline to be laid under the Black Sea. And Gazprom has been developing a 2,506 kilometer ‘Southern Corridor’ overland infrastructure that ends up at the Black Sea port of Anapa. Billions have been already spent. If there is a route change, Bulgaria and Romania are poised to benefit from the breakdown of Turkish-Russian relations.