The economic sentiment is not that low for Romania

The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for Romania rose to 101.2 in February from below long-term average level of 99.6 in January 2025, signaling that perhaps the respondents in the survey overreacted to the political turmoil. The confidence improved across all sectors, except for construction.   Economic growth is estimated at +2.0% in 2025 with the risks balance tilted to the downside as the fiscal impulse is likely to turn negative to reach the budget deficit target. Investments supported by EU funds are likely to grow faster than households’ consumption, while trade deficit could narrow marginally.   Manufacturing confidence rose to -1.6 from -2.1 in January, supported by sharply lower inventories and higher production expectations.   Services sentiment marginally increased to 4.8 in February from 4.7 in January, as managers reported better past business which outweighed weaker expected demand. Consumer confidence improved to -17 in February from -20.3 in January, as households outlook for financial and economic situation improved from depressed levels seen in January. Nevertheless, people seem more prone to saving, given the high uncertainty, as major purchasing intentions were little changed. Retail trade confidence rose to 8.5 in February vs 8.0 in the previous month driven by stronger business expectations which offset weaker reported past activity and higher inventories.   Construction confidence fell to -8.1 in February from -6.1 in January, its lowest level since April 2023. The decline was driven by both lower order books and weaker employment expectations. This likely reflects ongoing challenges in public investment activity and project uncertainty.   At the European level, ESI for the EU inched up from 96.0 to 97.1, signaling a broader stabilization in economic sentiment across the region.   Selling price expectations dropped across the board in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction. Consumer price expectations for the next twelve months edged sharply lower, as well, reversing almost entirely the rise in January inflation expectations.   Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) decreased to 102.5 in February vs 104.3 in January with all sectors, except services reporting lower hiring intentions.